Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Tough Power Generation Times For Gas As Its Generation Market Share Falls To 27.5% And EIA Forecasts Another Fall In 2014

The rising price of natural gas is costing it considerable electricity generation market share--about 10% of its 2012 market share by 2014. Indeed, in 2013, natural gas's market share dropped from 30% to 27.5%.  Gas's market share loss has been coal's gain.

EIA forecasts that the 2013 trend of gas losing market share will continue in 2014. Here is what EIA states: "Natural-gas-fired generation accounts for a 26.8% share of total generation during
2014, down from 27.5% in 2013 as a result of rising natural gas prices."

Only by 2015 does EIA project that gas will start gaining again.  "EIA expects the share of coal to fall to 38.6% of total generation while the natural gas share rises back to 27.6%."

Why does EIA project a reversal of fortune for gas in 2015? Significant coal retirements will take place by 2015 as a result of the EPA's rule regulating mercury and other toxic air pollutants that take affect that year.

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