The rising price of natural gas is costing it considerable electricity generation market share--about 10% of its 2012 market share by 2014. Indeed, in 2013, natural gas's market share dropped from 30% to 27.5%. Gas's market share loss has been coal's gain.
EIA forecasts that the 2013 trend of gas losing market share will continue in 2014. Here is what EIA states: "Natural-gas-fired generation accounts for a 26.8% share of total generation during
2014, down from 27.5% in 2013 as a result of rising natural gas prices."
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf.
Only by 2015 does EIA project that gas will start gaining again. "EIA expects the share of coal to fall to 38.6% of total generation while the natural gas share rises back to 27.6%."
Why does EIA project a reversal of fortune for gas in 2015? Significant coal retirements will take place by 2015 as a result of the EPA's rule regulating mercury and other toxic air pollutants that take affect that year.
No comments:
Post a Comment