April was a very good month for new natural gas power plants. Across America, 1,224 megawatts of new natural gas power plants came on line, accounting for more than 90% of the new capacity added in April.
http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2013/apr-energy-infrastructure.pdf.
Natural gas and renewable energy have provided all of the 3,481 megawatts of new power plants that have come on line to date in America from January to April. Of that total, gas plants provided 1,565 megawatts; wind 958 megawatts; solar 845 megawatts; hydro 71 megawatts; and biomass 49 megawatts. Renewable energy cumulatively was 55% of the new capacity added to date this year.
No new coal, oil or nuclear capacity began operation in the first four months of 2013. Natural gas and renewable energy will continue to dominate new generation markets for the next 10 years at least.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Stunning Fact: SolarCity Stock Quadruples Since 2012 IPO
The sun is shining once more on some solar stocks but no more brightly than on SolarCity, another Elon Musk company. SolarCity completed its initial public offering in 2012 and priced at $8 per share.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/us-solarcity-ipo-idUSBRE8BB01R20121212.
Yesterday, SolarCity closed at $35.69 or up more than four times its initial $8 per share price.
Over the next 10 years, an enormous amount of solar will be installed across America. The solar installation business will remain high growth, creating thousands of jobs, and the opportunity for profit, if businesses execute well.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/us-solarcity-ipo-idUSBRE8BB01R20121212.
Yesterday, SolarCity closed at $35.69 or up more than four times its initial $8 per share price.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/scty.
Readers of this blog know that I have put a spotlight on SolarCity, as one of the most promising solar companies, because it is solar installation and not solar manufacturing. SolarCity installs solar systems and benefits from the Darwinian competition among solar cell and module manufacturers that drives down the price of the systems that SolarCity sells.
Simply put, solar manufacturing is where profit goes to die, but solar system deployment is where profits are made.
Here is an analysis of SolarCity's business performance that looks at growth in customers and other metrics:
http://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/17/solarcity-earnings-mixed-results-but-good-prospects/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterReaders of this blog know that I have put a spotlight on SolarCity, as one of the most promising solar companies, because it is solar installation and not solar manufacturing. SolarCity installs solar systems and benefits from the Darwinian competition among solar cell and module manufacturers that drives down the price of the systems that SolarCity sells.
Simply put, solar manufacturing is where profit goes to die, but solar system deployment is where profits are made.
Here is an analysis of SolarCity's business performance that looks at growth in customers and other metrics:
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Duke Study Finds No Fracking Water Contamination In Arkansas But Stands Behind Different PA Findings
Researchers at Duke University have published another study on possible impacts of gas drilling on groundwater. This study sampled 127 drinking water wells in Arkansas and found no drilling impact.
http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/news/study-finds-no-evidence-of-water-contamination-from-shale-gas-drilling-in-arkansas?utm_source=click&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=hpbanners.
In Arkansas, the Duke researchers found little methane in the sampled groundwater, and the methane that they did find was not shale gas in nearly all instances, according to isotopic testing. This is good news.
In Dimock, Pennsylvania, isotopic testing was also used by the Department of Environmental Protection in 2010. There DEP isotopic testing documented that methane had migrated from gas wells, where mistakes were made, to contaminate 18 water wells.
In the press release announcing its Arkansas findings, the Duke team interestingly restates its different findings in Pennsylvania and argues its studies in the two states are not contradictory. Duke suggests different geology in the two states and better industry performance in Arkansas than Pennsylvania explain the differing outcomes.
Methane migration is a real problem. Stopping methane from migrating from gas wells as a result of cementing or other problems to water wells must be a top priority for regulators and gas producers.
http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/news/study-finds-no-evidence-of-water-contamination-from-shale-gas-drilling-in-arkansas?utm_source=click&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=hpbanners.
In Arkansas, the Duke researchers found little methane in the sampled groundwater, and the methane that they did find was not shale gas in nearly all instances, according to isotopic testing. This is good news.
In Dimock, Pennsylvania, isotopic testing was also used by the Department of Environmental Protection in 2010. There DEP isotopic testing documented that methane had migrated from gas wells, where mistakes were made, to contaminate 18 water wells.
In the press release announcing its Arkansas findings, the Duke team interestingly restates its different findings in Pennsylvania and argues its studies in the two states are not contradictory. Duke suggests different geology in the two states and better industry performance in Arkansas than Pennsylvania explain the differing outcomes.
Methane migration is a real problem. Stopping methane from migrating from gas wells as a result of cementing or other problems to water wells must be a top priority for regulators and gas producers.
Exxon & BP Strategic Plan Projections For Renewable Energy Are Way Too Low
A new study looking at prominent projections about renewable energy made by the International Energy Agency, World Bank, and others confirms that conventional wisdom about renewable energy is wrong!
The report observes that "[t]he history of energy scenarios is full of similar projections for renewable energy that proved too low by a factor of 10, or were achieved a decade earlier than expected." For example, the International Energy Agency's 2000 estimate for wind power in 2010 was 34 gigawatts, while the actual level was 200 gigawatts. The World Bank's 1996 estimate for China was 9 gigawatts of wind and 0.5 gigawatts for solar PV by 2020, but by 2011 the country had already achieved 62 gigawatts of wind and 3 gigawatts of PV.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/conventional-wisdom-about-clean-energy-is-way-out-of-date.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/conventional-wisdom-about-clean-energy-is-way-out-of-date.
In a case of possibly wishful thinking, Exxon in 2012 projected that the world will get just 16% by 2040 of its electricity from renewable energy. I would be glad to bet every member of the Exxon board of directors a Yuengling Lager or two that its strategic planners are way off.
By contrast, BP projects that renewable energy will provide 25% of the world's electricity by 2030. I am cautious bettor so I won't place a bet against the BP projection. But I also think it is too low. Why?
Projections consistently underestimate global public support for renewable energy, the sharp cost reductions achieved by especially the solar and wind industries, and increasing rates of energy efficiency. Solar in particular is now on a cost and deployment path that will make a mockery of most energy projections authored even in the last two years.
And then there is climate. At some point in the next two decades, carbon pricing will become a global reality. At that point, renewable energy, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage technology will finally have an even playing field, and markets will move rapidly toward these technologies.
China's Per Capita Carbon Emissions Will Soon Exceed Those Of New York, California, Vermont And Are Higher Than Washington DC
As the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds 400 parts per million and hurtles quickly toward 500, China is already responsible for about one-third of the world's annual emissions. And Chinese emissions continue to skyrocket, even as emissions stabilize or fall in Europe and the USA.
When China's enormous and growing total carbon emissions are noted, as I have just done, a response is often made that China's per capita emissions are lower. In fact, China's per capita emissions in 2011 of 7.2 tons were only slightly lower than the European Union's 7.5 tons and may well be higher by 2013.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/18/china-average-europe-carbon-footprint.
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/pdf/table5.pdf.
China's 2011 per capita emission of 7.2 tons are already higher than that of a Washingtonian. Residents of the District of Columbia averaged in 2010 just 5.4 tons.
Since 2011 China's emissions have continued to rise sharply, while US emissions have fallen significantly since 2010, as natural gas displaced significant amounts of coal to make electricity. These trend lines make it highly likely that the per capita emissions of China will exceed those of New York and possibly California within the next 5 years.
Climate change is a true global problem and the USA, Europe, India, Canada, the Middle East, South America, Australia must address it. But increasingly what happens in China will determine at what level concentrations of carbon dioxide can finally be stabilized. That fact must be faced squarely.
When China's enormous and growing total carbon emissions are noted, as I have just done, a response is often made that China's per capita emissions are lower. In fact, China's per capita emissions in 2011 of 7.2 tons were only slightly lower than the European Union's 7.5 tons and may well be higher by 2013.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/18/china-average-europe-carbon-footprint.
While China's per capita emissions are today about one-half of US per capita emissions, China will soon have higher per capita emissions than those of New York, Vermont, and California--the three US states with the lowest per capita emissions, as of 2010.
Per capita emissions of New York, Vermont, and California were respectively 8.8, 9.7, and 9.9 tons.
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/pdf/table5.pdf.
China's 2011 per capita emission of 7.2 tons are already higher than that of a Washingtonian. Residents of the District of Columbia averaged in 2010 just 5.4 tons.
Since 2011 China's emissions have continued to rise sharply, while US emissions have fallen significantly since 2010, as natural gas displaced significant amounts of coal to make electricity. These trend lines make it highly likely that the per capita emissions of China will exceed those of New York and possibly California within the next 5 years.
Climate change is a true global problem and the USA, Europe, India, Canada, the Middle East, South America, Australia must address it. But increasingly what happens in China will determine at what level concentrations of carbon dioxide can finally be stabilized. That fact must be faced squarely.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
New York Ranks Third In Total Carbon Emissions From Natural Gas
When it comes to reducing its carbon footprint, New York has lots about which it can be proud, including the lowest per capita emissions in the country. But New York's reliance on natural gas for daily life is underlined by the fact that it ranks third among all states in portion of its total carbon emissions that come from natural gas. Natural gas accounts for 37.6% of all its carbon emissions.
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/pdf/table2.pdf.
Given its large reliance on natural gas, New York's very low ranking for carbon emissions from coal is not surprising. New York ranks 43rd in total emissions from coal, with 9.1% of its carbon emissions from coal. Unlike many states, New York uses little coal to make electricity but a lot of gas to do so. New York also uses increasing amounts of natural gas to heat buildings.
New York is among those states where burning petroleum is the leading cause of carbon emissions.
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/pdf/table2.pdf.
Given its large reliance on natural gas, New York's very low ranking for carbon emissions from coal is not surprising. New York ranks 43rd in total emissions from coal, with 9.1% of its carbon emissions from coal. Unlike many states, New York uses little coal to make electricity but a lot of gas to do so. New York also uses increasing amounts of natural gas to heat buildings.
New York is among those states where burning petroleum is the leading cause of carbon emissions.
Shock Poll Finds 58% Support Drilling Moratorium In PA: The Reasons Why Public Confidence Is Collapsing
Tim is running out for the gas industry to get gas drilling right in Pennsylvania. Public confidence in the gas industry and its oversight is at tipping points and collapsing.
A poll by the University of Michigan and Mullenberg College finds a stunning 58% support "strongly" or "somewhat" a moratorium on gas drilling in Pennsylvania. Just 25% is strongly opposed to a moratorium.
http://closup.umich.edu/files/nsee-fracking-fall-2012.pdf. See Table 21 at page 19. See also:
http://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2013/05/14/poll-shows-support-for-a-drilling-moratorium-in-pennsylvania/.
The gas industry will note that the poll also finds 49% to 40% support for gas extraction in Pennsylvania. Yet, those numbers are becoming similar to public opinion in New York state and are moving toward a tipping point against gas drilling.
So what explains the continuing collapse of public confidence in the oversight and operations of the gas industry itself. Things like only a handful of companies in Pennsylvania embracing the Center For Sustainable Shale Development, while many companies now view it as a threat or annoyance, illustrate the gas industry's self-inflicted wounds.
But the biggest reasons for collapsing public confidence include still too many accidents, inadequate regulation and enforcement by the Corbett Administration, and the Corbett Administration's refusal to treat respectfully and fairly drilling complaints and concerns. Add to those blows to confidence the Corbett's nationally unique oppostion to a reasonable drilling tax, and you get these poll numbers.
http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20130514_ap_disputeoverpagasdrillingfees.html.
The state of public confidence and opinion reflected in this poll should cause major changes in the gas industry and the Corbett Administration. But it may not change much in either. Time will tell and is running out.
A poll by the University of Michigan and Mullenberg College finds a stunning 58% support "strongly" or "somewhat" a moratorium on gas drilling in Pennsylvania. Just 25% is strongly opposed to a moratorium.
http://closup.umich.edu/files/nsee-fracking-fall-2012.pdf. See Table 21 at page 19. See also:
http://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2013/05/14/poll-shows-support-for-a-drilling-moratorium-in-pennsylvania/.
So what explains the continuing collapse of public confidence in the oversight and operations of the gas industry itself. Things like only a handful of companies in Pennsylvania embracing the Center For Sustainable Shale Development, while many companies now view it as a threat or annoyance, illustrate the gas industry's self-inflicted wounds.
But the biggest reasons for collapsing public confidence include still too many accidents, inadequate regulation and enforcement by the Corbett Administration, and the Corbett Administration's refusal to treat respectfully and fairly drilling complaints and concerns. Add to those blows to confidence the Corbett's nationally unique oppostion to a reasonable drilling tax, and you get these poll numbers.
http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20130514_ap_disputeoverpagasdrillingfees.html.
The state of public confidence and opinion reflected in this poll should cause major changes in the gas industry and the Corbett Administration. But it may not change much in either. Time will tell and is running out.
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