Thursday, July 14, 2011

Bachmann Rising...Romney Falling

An ARG poll of Iowa puts Representative Bachmann in the lead for the first time.  Bachmann 21 per cent, with Romney now second at 18.

Pawlenty, the other Minnesota candidate and once thought by many pundits to be Romney's opponent, continues to have second-tier polling numbers.

Bachmann this friday announces her fundraising numbers.  Watch to see how close to $18 million (Romney's haul) she gets. 


  1. Concerned ScientistJuly 14, 2011 at 11:48 PM

    What a weak bunch of candidates. I can't see a situation where Obama loses to any of these people.

  2. I don't agree. Romney would make it a very close race. Democrats would also make a huge error in underestimating Bachmann. She would be the first female candidate of a major party. She has real skills; she will inspire tremendous passion by the Republican base.

    The country is in economic pain that now goes back at least to 2001, with a lost decade, punctuated with a near collapse following the September 15th, 2008 Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy.

    We are now in an economy growing but growing so slowly that it is not producing enough jobs to keep up with population growth.

    Furthermore the pressure is to slash spending right now that could push the economy into outright recession. $125 oil could do the same.

    No President since FDR has won re-election with the economic numbers this President faces. The President has incredible political skills and he has a locked in 45% of the vote, but getting to 50% is far from a slam dunk.

  3. Concerned ScientistJuly 15, 2011 at 12:56 PM

    All good points. I suppose you may be right with Romney. He comes off as a real phony to me though. I think he is probably a reasonable guy underneath who knows he needs to swing way to the right in order to get the nomination and he just gives off a vibe of "I'll say anything to be elected." But if he does get the nomination, perhaps he will be able to let his inner reasonable guy out and give Obama a run for his money.

    Bachmann, on the other hand, seems dangerously insane to me. I predict that becomes apparent to 65% of the country as time progresses. That remaining 35% could get her the nomination though.

    Obama has governed as a centrist or perhaps even a little right of center. One thing he can do really well is explain things so that almost everyone understands. When he starts talking, most people feel better. He just sounds like a guy who knows what he is talking about. He looked and sounded like so much more of a grown-up than McCain and I think this same thing will happen with either Romney or Bachmann.

    I still think most Americans understand that Obama inherited a terrible situation from Bush and that most of the problems we are facing are not his fault.

    I agree with you that the current plan to slash spending will make things worse. What the economy really needs is another stimulus but that won't happen.

    Your point about oil prices is a good one. Obama would do well to get on board with gas as a way to decrease our oil imports.

    Getting on board big-time with natural gas would be a great move for democrats. The way they could stand out would be by committing to improve our natural gas infrastructure with government money. It could also provide a "Sister Souljah" moment if they cut themselves loose from the fringe environmental groups.

  4. Concerned ScientistJuly 15, 2011 at 1:19 PM

    This is an interesting read about Bachmann - maybe I should be more worried