Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Perry Surging; Bachmann Stalling; Romney Collapsing

Public Policy Polling will have a poll today that has Governor Perry with a double digit lead in the Republican Race.  He has surged by Governor Romney who is unable to get beyond about 25% and is no longer the front runner.

Governor Perry also seems to have achieved his first crucial strategic goal and that was to stall Congresswoman Bachmann and gradually consolidate the dominant conservatives within the GOP around his candidacy.

PPP published an Iowa poll yesterday that had Perry leading in Iowa which is a must win state for Bachmann.  Romney was third in Iowa, with Paul a close 4th.

Looking to the general election Gallup had the President and Governor Perry tied.


  1. Mr. Hangar, these are helpful summaries, but it seems you may be falling into a pattern that John Stewart points out in mainstream media, and ignoring how well Ron Paul is doing.

    What are your thoughts on the effect of his potential presidency?

  2. In slight defense, I did mention Paul as being a close 4th in Iowa. He had 16% in the PPP Iowa poll. Paul is a fascinating figure. I am glad he is running in the Republican party. He challenges some conventional Republican thinking. I would say that he has about a 5% chance of winning the nomination, not zero but close to it. Were he the nominee I would think he would have about a 30% chance of winning the general election.

    I appreciate his challenge to the Iraq war--he voted against it and was one of 3 Republicans to do so. His critique of foreign entanglements and nation building resonates with me. But he goes several steps further than I would in the direction he advocates. My disagreement with him on military and foreign policy would be one of degree but not direction.

    I have sharp disagreements with him on the Federal Reserve and the Gold Standard. His monetary policy would guarantee a depression.

    I disagree with him about the role of regulation in a modern society. As just one example, I do not want to abolish the EPA. He does.

    I also have sharp disagreements with him about the social safety net in the form of social security, medicare, unemployment compensation, workers compensation. Life can be cruel and unfortunate. Illness, accident, disability at birth, old age. Arguments about the size of programs and their operation are good and healthy. Making initiatives work better is important. I believe government has a role in preventing people from dying on the streets to put it starkly. Where that occurs in the world, it is a horrible sight. It is uncivilized, barbaric.