The internationally respected Wood Mackenzie energy consulting firm projects that the Marcellus will be producing between 11 billion and 19 billion cubic feet per day by 2020 or about 15% to 25% of US gas supply.
By this year the Marcellus will produce 3.5 billion cubic feet per day, a rate equal to about 6% of US gas supply.
These extraordinary production numbers are real and not estimates from anyone, unlike the reserve calculations at the center of last week's confusion between the US Geologic Survey and EIA.
On Friday we all were told by the US Geologic Survey that its estimate was just a subset, the undiscovered reserves, of total reserves.
This head scratching and spinning reserve discussion is one more reason to pay close attention to the last 10 years of shale production data, and the fact that shale gas now accounts for 30% of us gas supply, rocketing up from 1% in 2000.