The internationally respected Wood Mackenzie energy consulting firm projects that the Marcellus will be producing between 11 billion and 19 billion cubic feet per day by 2020 or about 15% to 25% of US gas supply.
By this year the Marcellus will produce 3.5 billion cubic feet per day, a rate equal to about 6% of US gas supply.
These extraordinary production numbers are real and not estimates from anyone, unlike the reserve calculations at the center of last week's confusion between the US Geologic Survey and EIA.
On Friday we all were told by the US Geologic Survey that its estimate was just a subset, the undiscovered reserves, of total reserves.
This head scratching and spinning reserve discussion is one more reason to pay close attention to the last 10 years of shale production data, and the fact that shale gas now accounts for 30% of us gas supply, rocketing up from 1% in 2000.
Hi John
ReplyDeleteNo need to post this but it is the US Geological Survey not Service
Thank you for pointing out the error. I made the correction.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out:
ReplyDeletehttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/28/306340/im-scheduled-to-be-on-nprs-diane-rehm-show-monday-at-10-am-on-fracking/
Were you invited?
I'd be interested in your take on the anti-gas narrative he has built there. I think he has some good points, but seems to be assuming that gas will displace renewables at the same rate that it displaces coal thereby making it a zero sum game.
I don't think that is a reasonable assumption but I suppose it is possible. The cost of renewables keeps coming down and the price of gas will probably drift back upward to 5 or 6 an mcf over the next few years. Certainly the data thus far suggests that renewables are continuing to grow while gas displaces coal.
I was not invited. In 2009, 2010, 2011, US wind will have doubled its capacity to about 50,000 megawatts from 25,000 megawatts. US solar will have quadrupled its capacity over the same period. So far shale gas and wind and solar are booming at the same time.
ReplyDelete