Temperatures are up, and the frost-free seasons are longer all across America. Frost-free seasons are 5 to 21 days longer than they were on average from 1900 to 1960, according to a major national study.
http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-fulldraft.pdf. That change is already a fact, not a projection. It's climate change that is here and now. And more is ahead.
It is certainly not a stunning fact that the climate is changing. It is a scientific fact that the climate is always changing, it always has been in a state of change and it always will be in a state of change, and the change occuring now is no greater than changes mankind has lived through in the past. It is a banal truism to say "more is ahead", not a stunning fact. It is also a historical fact that the colder periods of human history were overall worse for humanity, and the warmer periods were overall better for humanity. The people who try to hide or deny these facts are rent seekers and the ignorant.
ReplyDelete- David
So it's just a coincidence that heat trapping gas concentrations have increased from 280 ppm to 394 ppm and temperatures have gone up? 97% or more of trained climate scientists don't agree with you.
DeleteActually John, most climate scientists would agree with each of the facts I wrote.
ReplyDeleteThey would agree that the climate has always changed and always will change, and that there have been large climate shifts over a short time in the past. They would agree that colder periods of history were worse for mankind than warmer periods. Which of these facts would they not agree with ?
The "97%" number so often repeated by you and others comes from a very unscientific poll where 97% of those who responded agreed that CO2-levels had an impact on the climate. Well, I would agree with that too. The fact that people cite this as a reason to believe climate alarmism is an example of very unscientific behavior.
- David
The 97% fact refers to a study of all peer reviewed climate studies. 97% of those authors agree that man is causing temperatures to increase. The Berkeley Earth Surface Project study in 2012, led by Professor Muller, closes the case. George W. Bush asked the National Academy of Sciences to report to him on whether man was causing temperatures to increase. Ten years ago they said yes. Some folks just won't accept these scientific conclusions.
DeleteIf I throw a pebble into the ocean, that will cause the sea level to increase. This is a scientific fact that all would agree on. The valid question is not whether CO2 is causing the temperature to increase, but how much increase it is causing, and whether that increase is good or bad. There is no agreement on how much the increase is, and the history of the world clearly shows that warmer is better. Some folks just won't accept these scientific facts.
ReplyDeleteAnd with regard to the degree of temperature increase, we have the following recent revelation from a respected climate scientist about what he was told by another climate scientist ---
James Annan writes on his blog
"Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action."
- David