Wednesday, January 4, 2012

8 Votes Deny Santorum Victory and Make Romney's Dream Come True

The power of just 8 votes.

Eight votes separate Governor Romney and Senator Santorum, but those 8 votes bring headlines around America about which Romney has been dreaming for 4 or more years. Romney won the Iowa caucus and, by so doing, limits the bounce that Santorum will get coming out of Iowa, as the campaign moves to Romney's home field of New Hampshire.

The Romney dream of winning both Iowa and New Hampshire is now 6 days from coming true. Spending just $120,000 on advertising and direct mail in Iowa out of necessity, Santorum needs a Mount Everest sized bounce to bring an avalanche of funds--at least $10 million--just so that he can strongly compete in South Carolina and Florida. If Santorum is not on TV in Florida and South Carolina, while Romney carpet bombs him with negative advertising, he need look no further than Newt Gingrich's distant 4th place finish to see what is ahead for him.

So did Iowa pick the GOP nominee last night? Is the race over? Probably so but Romney remains unloved by GOP conservatives or about 75% of the party who know that Romney is the parody of a politician who says anything to get elected, while meaning nothing. Romney has more than an Achilles Heel. He has gaping vulnerabilities.

Santorum will benefit from the Perry and Bachmann exits. He will be helped by the return of national debates this week. But he will not be aided by the continued campaigns of Gingrich and Paul who will simply divide the "Not Romney" camp. And without big money falling through his website or a billionaire deciding to pummel Romney with negative ads, Santorum will not be able to turn Romney's gaping vulnerabilities into fatal wounds. Just 8 votes are likely to prevent Santorum from gaining the indispensable cash he must have to defeat Romney.

Santorum, however, has resurected his political career with his successful against the odds Iowa campaign. He will be at the center of the political stage for the next month, have a high profile role at the GOP convention, and part of the soon intense chatter about who will be the VP selection of Governor Romney.

5 comments:

  1. So how do you really feel John?? :) good commentary. It's gonna be an interesting week in New Hampshire. Think Huntsman has a chance???

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's gonna be really hard for Santorum to get elected President, with a track record on Residency, like this...http://radnor.patch.com/articles/santorum-iowa

    that said,,Romney has his own Residency Issues..

    ReplyDelete
  3. If you mean do I think Huntsman will win NH, I would say No. I also think he must win to move on. Gingrich has money and he has two national debate opportunities this week. His last stand is South Carolina. It will be interesting to see how hard he goes after Romney. On monday, he called Romney a "liar"...no indirection or ambiguity...He said he was a liar. Hard for me to argue with the former Speaker on that one. But will Gingrich really go after him in NH. The Manchester Union Leader also is appalled by Romney's serial panderings that make any head spin so you are right that the week may be entertaining.

    ReplyDelete
  4. National polls show that Ron Paul gives up only 7 points to Obama in a theoretical Paul vs. Obama showdown. He has a lot of crossover appeal with disenfranchised Democrats and Independents. I think should the GOP give him the nod, he would be a very formidable opponent for President Obama. Dr. Paul has a huge following among the youth vote, which was a key demographic for putting Obama in the White House. It will be very interesting to see how this all pans out.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree that Congressman Paul could be President Obama. The polling data you provide indicates so. His message of a sort of social liberty, though he seems to think states can ban just about anything, no more wars, and a total chainsaw to all regulation and safety net programs has an audience, most of it among the young. But the Republican party will not nominate him. He will not do much better than 25% in any state. The question becomes, what does he do in the Fall? Does he run? Does he support Gary Johnson, if he himself is not the Libertarian nominee? Those are big questions for the Fall. He will not be the Republican party nominee but he is consequential.

    ReplyDelete