Thursday, December 29, 2011

Santorum Catching Fire: Hits 16% in Iowa

For political junkies, the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries are the best ever.  Wow, Wow, Wow!

Two polls of Iowa came out yesterday--PPP and CNN.  The PPP poll had Senator Santorum at 10%, with no movement for him.  But the CNN poll had Santorum at 16%, up 11 percentage points, and in third place behind Romney at 25% and Paul at 22%.

In other words, CNN had Santorum surging or catching fire.  If the CNN poll is right, Santorum has enough time to take second or even win it.

Clearly the 25% of Republicans aligned with the party establishment long ago settled on Governor Romney.  Just as clearly, the 75% of Republican voters who want something more than winning power continue their hunt for someone other than Romney.

Romney's good fortune to this point is that the "Not Romney" vote has split 6 ways and so far has not been able to coalesce solidly behind any other candidate.  Could Santorum change that?

His position with the Christian right is A plus; his position with the Neo-Conservatives who still believe the Iraq War was a good idea is A plus; his position with the Tea Party is solid too.

He is a two-term US Senator who rose to be the Republican whip in the US Senate so he has experience.

What he does not have is hardly any money.  He did not qualify for the Virginia ballot.  He has essentially no campaign anywhere but Iowa to where he moved his entire family months ago.

A win in Iowa would bring Santorum $5 million within a week, but New Hampshire is January 10th and the state is much less evangelical, more libertarian, more Yankee Republican and fits Santorum less well.  Can Santorum do well enough in New Hampshire to build momentum for South Carolina and Florida and a long battle into April?  The odds are small but not zero, and this is the most unpredictable primary season ever.

If CNN is right, Santorum is catching fire and that would reward his immersion in Iowa and his hard work.  At this point for Santorum to win the nomination,  he will need an inferno. 

The good news for Santorum is that the fuel for such an inferno--the 75% of primary voters seeking an alternative to Romney--exists.

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