If the EIA's base case in its most recent projection of international energy demand and supply through 2035 is correct, then the USA is going to be burning for the next 25 years much more oil and coal than it should. To put it another way, the gas bridge to the future would be very long and narrow.
EIA projects that the US gas demand increases just 0.5% per year or 14.2% from 2008 to 2035. It has gas demand increasing from 23.2 trillion cubic feet per year to 26.5 trillion cubic feet. By contrast, global demand for gas increases the fastest of any fossil fuel at 1.6% per year.
If EIA is right that US gas demand increases by just 0.5% per year, the oceans of gas in the USA will only be modestly tapped by the time 2035 arrives. There will be miles and miles left to go on the bridge to the future.
The EIA projection coming true would also mean that the USA had not moved much transportation demand at all from foreign oil to domestic gas and that relatively little gas replaced coal-fired power plants.
The EIA long gas bridge to the future scenario would also mean more emissions for the next 25 years, more US economic risk to high world oil prices, and more national security risk than if the use of gas grows at rates much higher than 0.5%.
The EIA base case assumes no changes in policy. This result is what happens if the current rules and distortions of the market are not modified.