Monday, December 23, 2013

New Study Finds Texas Will Increase Renewable Energy By 150% To 330% But Add No Coal Capacity

Texas is a power generation giant, and how Texas generates electricity will be a model for America. In short, Texas charts America's power generation future more surely than any other state!

Today, like America, Texas relies on coal, gas, nuclear, and renewable energy. Indeed, renewable energy, nearly all of it wind, accounts for 10% of Texas's power, a bit less than the 14% green power provides America. But change is sweeping through how Texas generates electricity.

A new study finds that Texas will add no new coal or nuclear capacity between now and 2032. Zero new coal, as Texas ramps up natural gas and renewable energy generation.

Texas's reliance on renewable energy generation jumps from 10% today to 25% or possibly 43%.  The trend lines for renewable energy are one more indication that the most recent EIA's 2040 renewable energy projection nears silliness.

Here is what the study states:

  • Across the more likely scenarios, wind and solar grow from their current 10 percent generation share to levels between 25 and 43 percent. Natural gas-fired generation provides all of the remaining incremental generation, adding 12 to 25 gigwatts of new combined-cycle capacity – a 38 to 80 percent increase in the current installed base.
  • The mix of new gas and renewables generation is sensitive to the price of natural gas and cost declines in wind and solar power. Changes in these three factors can cause significant shifts in the mix of future installations, leading to a wide range of plausible generation shares for wind, solar, and natural gas.

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