The latest EIA data confirm that the US is in the midst of an historic decline in electricity usage. Going back to at least 1973 (the start of the EIA data), the US has used more electricity nearly every year and always used more electricity every 5 years.
But those iron trends are breaking. Electricity end use peaked in 2007 and has dropped slightly since then.
See www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_19.pdf.
Electricity use in 2011 was about 1% less than in 2007 and was a bit lower than in 2010. The once near guaranteed yearly increases in electricity usage are no more. The 2011 drop took place, even though the 2011 GDP was greater than 2010.
Moreover, electricity use in the first 5 months of 2012 was about 2% lower than in the first 5 months of 2011. If that trend holds for the remainder of this year, electricity usage in 2012 will be lower than it was in 2007. And that would be the first time, since the EIA data began in 1973, that electricity usage was lower than 5 years ago. Even the 2009 usage, despite a drop of 4% as a result of the economic collapse, was greater than in 2004.
Indeed, if electricity usage falls 2% during 2012, US electricity usage will be back to about 2005 levels, a remarkable change in the pattern of electricity usage. This remarkable change seems to be a function of much greater efficiency surging through motors, appliances, air conditioning, lighting, and more and slow GDP growth.
John,
ReplyDeleteI suspect that ALL of the drop results from the solar panels on the roofs or backyards of electric company customers that no longer PURCHASE electricity from the grid. I still use about the same amount of electricity but no longer BUY from the grid. The EIA report does not account for this.
Carl Benner
Carl:
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on being part of the solar revolution. You have growing company. Yet, it is still very early days in solar power. All solar combined, including grid connected solar farms and distributed systems, produce less than 0.5% of US electricity. The distributed systems production is not generally included in EIA data, though this chart does track on-site direct use. But even with all solar power included it cannot explain the total decline. Its contributing but not accounting for all the decline in end use.
Maybe some of the decline comes from industries that have relocated to other countries, in part, maybe, because of high electricity prices, caused in part by renewable mandates and subsidies.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible also that domestic and commercial use has declined because of the price hikes.
The decline in electricity use might signal "energy poverty" - it might not be something you want to celebrate.
Electricity prices are down. EIA states retail rates nationally averaged 9.79 cents/kwh from January to June 2011 and averaged 9.73 cents/kwh from January to June 2012. Wholesale electricity prices are down about 30% in 2012. Billboards and ads notwithstanding the facts are that electricity prices are down. In PA they are about 40% lower in constant dollars in 2012 than they were in 1996. Electricity consumption is falling despite falling electricity prices.
DeleteOk.
ReplyDeleteIt might be interesting to check the decline of consumption on a regional basis. In some places prices probably went up, contrary to the general trend. I guess prices went up in California, for example - the greenest state. So it would be interesting to see what consuption did, there.
The EIA data for California show electric rates are down a bit more than 1% for January-June 2012 compared to January-June 2011. California has for 40 years invested in energy efficiency. It has the strongest building code, including energy efficiency requirements, in the country. Its utilities are paid to conserve energy and their profits are decoupled from sales to remove the disincentive for them to help their customers conserve energy.
ReplyDeleteI read that, in the recent past, less than 50% of the generated electricity actually arrived at the intended consumers due to transmission loss. Perhaps some of the reported reduction in consumption can be attributed to more distributed generation made possible by the increased use of smaller natural gas facilities sited closer to the load point, thus reducing transmission loss. What say you, John?
ReplyDelete"Line losses" are around 10% of the energy generated. I suspect that some of the decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption is a result of on-site generation reducing the amount of generation going through the meter. But energy efficiency in lighting, motors, buildings, appliances, furnaces, and on and on is bending the electricity consumption curve.
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