Wednesday, November 7, 2012

President Obama & The Democratic Party Win Major Victories Fueled By Major Demographic Change

Every year 3 million Americans become old enough to vote, and 3 million Americans die.  Over the course of 4 years, the electorate changes by about 24 million people or by about 15% in just 4 years and 30% in 8 years.

Riding the rapidly changing demographics of America, President Obama won an impressive electoral college victory, where he lost just 2 states--North Carolina and Indiana--that he won in 2008.  The Obama margins are tight in Ohio, Virginia, Florida but not in Pennsylvania and other states Republicans targeted.

In addition, though the Democrats had to defend 23 US senate seats, the Democratic Party is adding to its majority in the US Senate.  That result is shocking, when judged from what was determined to be an almost certain Republican takeover of the Senate just 6 months ago.

The special sauce of an emerging national electoral majority for Democrats begins with an Obama 64% to 36% victory among the 19% of the electorate that is below 30.  Romney won those who are over 65 by 10 points, and the senior vote accounted for 17% of the total vote.  Yet, the future belongs to the young and so looks good for the Democratic party. 

President Obama won the Latino vote 3 to 1, and Latinos constituted 10% of the total vote, up from 8% in 2008.  African-Americans turned out strongly and accounted for 13% of the vote and likely increased their total votes from 2008.  White voters registered 72% of the electorate, a decline from 74% in 2008.  Governor Romney won nearly 60% of white voters, the highest percentage since George H. W. Bush won more than 400 electoral votes against Governor Dukakis.

These demographic changes are substantial and portend an enduring edge for the Democratic Party nationally, unless the Republican Party alters policies on voting rights, civil rights, immigration, reproductive health, health care, gay rights, and soon marijuana control that are driving away large numbers of young and minority voters.

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