Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Reason Rising: Global Warming Belief Rising Even Among Republicans

A new Pew Research Poll shows that an increasing number of Republicans accept climate science and believe in global warming.  Currently, 48% of Republicans believe in global warming, and that number is up sharply from just 35% in 2009 and 43% in 2011.

Belief in global warming is rising among Democrats and Independents as well.  It's not quite unanimous in the Democratic party, but 85% of Democrats believe in global warming and 65% of Independents do too.

Among all Americans, 67% now express belief in global warming up from 57% in 2009 and 63% in 2011.  While belief is rising, it is still well below the 77% recorded five years ago.  See this link for all data:

This data confirm that reason is rising.

1 comment:

  1. Of course, we should be depressed that the survey is not finding 100% "belief" in global warming, if by that proposition we mean, "Has the planet warmed by apx 0.8 degrees Celsius over the prior 100+ years?"

    In addition to finding that depressing, I find it more depressing that there is no common recognition in the media, popular press, or even among serious climate scientists themselves about what, exactly, the "consensus" science is really a consensus of.

    No serious person disputes that CO2 is a GHG, or that its concentration has risen from 280ppm to about 400ppm and that much of that can be attributed to people. No serious person disputes that doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels, absent feedback, should produce about 1 degree of warming, which is what another doubling may be reasonably expected to generate.

    But that's about where the consensus ends. There is absolutely no consensus about how best to model feedback effects nor their magnitudes (just stating that the number is 4 degrees does not a consensus make). And beyond that entirely there is absolutely no consensus on what the economic costs of warming may be, or what we might do to deal with it.

    In addition to the wind and gas that you write much about, several things are happening right under our noses to reduce the impacts of a warmer planet without us doing anything about the warming. Most notably has been the dramatic decline in malaria incidence around the world over the last decade, particularly in Africa - this despite the fact that it has been warming and that malaria (and other insect vectors) are thought to be among the most serious risks we face from a warmer climate.

    So while there is surely good news in this particular survey, the entire "debate" is depressing.