See the previous post about heating oil prices to see why warning lights are flashing and sirens are blaring. Two dictatorships down and how many will go? And what does it mean for oil prices and the American economy? Questions abound:
What are the odds that the Saudi royal family is deposed in 2011? Whatever the odds were prior to the Tunisian and Egyptian revolts, the chances of a new government in Saudi Arabia by the end of this year are much higher now.
What do you think the odds are of a successful uprising in Saudi Arabia? My own guess is 1 in 3 and increasing everyday.
What do you think the odds are of a successful uprising this year in Iran are? My own guess is 1 in 10 but also rising everyday.
In both nations, the militaries will be pivotal. Will they remain united? Will they remain united and follow orders to shoot thousands? Or will they splinter and turn on their political masters?
Would a successful revolution in Iran lower or increase oil prices? How about Saudi Arabia?
I would love to get your thoughts.