With Alabama and Mississippi voting tonight, the CBS poll released last night should encourage Republicans and be a cold shower for Democrats who increasingly need one.
CBS has the President's approval at 41%, down from 50% last month. www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395703-503544/poll-obamas-approval-rating-sinks-to-new-low/?tag=cbsContent;cbsCarousel. The 41% approval is a record low in the CBS poll. The poll had a 47% disapproval number for the President..
While I do think the recent increase in gas prices probably has hurt the President a bit, I have my doubts that the President's numbers fell 9 points in one month.
I suspect the President's approval is somewhere between 44% and 48%. Gallup in fact yesterday had Obama's approval rating rising to 49%. www.gallup.com/poll/153194/Obama-Job-Approval-Rating-Reaches-Weekend.aspx.
The Republican nomination, nonetheless, remains valuable, as long as the President's approval rating is below 50%, and it seems to be so this morning, no matter what poll one reads.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Monday, March 12, 2012
Santorum Must Hammer Romney's Failed Jobs Governorship
After winning Oklahoma, Tennessee, North Dakota, and Kansas on saturday, Rick Santorum won the religious right-wing of the Republican party, but his victory came at the price of becoming nationally unpopular (44.5% disapproval and 33% approval of Santorum) and allowing Mitt Romney to squeak out wins in Michigan and Ohio. Just enough Republican voters have been buying Mitt Romney's claim that he can reinvigorate the US economy to edge him toward the nomination, no matter how successful Santorum is with thrilling social conservatives. To win the nomination, Santorum must hammer into public consciousness that Mitt Romney failed miserably to create jobs as Governor of Massachusetts.
Massachusetts under Romney ranked 47th in job creation; by 2006 Massachusetts had 16,000 less jobs than in 2002. Job growth in New York was three times faster; in California jobs growth was 5 times faster; and jobs growth in North Carolina was 8 times faster than in Massachusetts during Romney's tenure. See Wall Street journal article at: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2010-02-23/commentary/30748666_1_mitt_romney_jobs_growth_massachusetts.
The people of Massachusetts hired Mitt Romney to do for them what Romney now says he will do for the America--create jobs and economic growth. Romney failed and would have been fired by the voters had he run for re-election.
Yet fixated on ideology and so misses Romney's jugular, Newt Gingrich calls Romney a "moderate" or "liberal" Governor of Massachusetts and heads off on one more riff about Romneycare. A better adjective is "failed," and it still is the jobs issue that will decide the nomination and the general election.
If Republican voters become aware of Romney's lousy jobs record as Governor of Massachusetts, Romney's last claim to the nomination will meltdown.
Massachusetts under Romney ranked 47th in job creation; by 2006 Massachusetts had 16,000 less jobs than in 2002. Job growth in New York was three times faster; in California jobs growth was 5 times faster; and jobs growth in North Carolina was 8 times faster than in Massachusetts during Romney's tenure. See Wall Street journal article at: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2010-02-23/commentary/30748666_1_mitt_romney_jobs_growth_massachusetts.
The people of Massachusetts hired Mitt Romney to do for them what Romney now says he will do for the America--create jobs and economic growth. Romney failed and would have been fired by the voters had he run for re-election.
Yet fixated on ideology and so misses Romney's jugular, Newt Gingrich calls Romney a "moderate" or "liberal" Governor of Massachusetts and heads off on one more riff about Romneycare. A better adjective is "failed," and it still is the jobs issue that will decide the nomination and the general election.
If Republican voters become aware of Romney's lousy jobs record as Governor of Massachusetts, Romney's last claim to the nomination will meltdown.
Stunning Fact: Fukushima Closes One-Eighth Of World's Nukes
While a lot of Fukushima anniversary commentary about nuclear power's prospects around the world focused on new nuclear plants under construction in China, Russia, and India, one stunning fact got little attention that makes clear that the last year has been the worst for nuclear power in its history. The world's third and fourth largest economies--Japan and Germany--closed at least temporarily 60 nuclear reactors or 1 out of 8 in the world, in the year after Fukushima. Germany shutdown 8 nuclear reactors permanently in 2011, and, today in Japan, 52 out of 54 nuclear plants are off-line, with their future uncertain. Germany will also close all of its remaining 13 nuclear plants by 2022.
Prior to the March 11, 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan generated one-third of its electricity from nuclear power. Japan closing 52 of 54 nuclear reactors or one-third of its power in a year is the equivalent of the USA closing nearly all of its coal-fired power plants. Given how much of its power came from nuclear reactors, it boggles my mind to think Japan has done a "nuclear cold turkey."
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46676913/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.T1noiONSSEY.
What has Japan done to replace nearly all its considerable nuclear power? Super aggressive conservation practices have been the most important means to replace the lost power. Well before the Fukushima disaster, Japan was a world leader in energy efficiency so all the low-hanging efficiency fruit was picked long ago in Japan. After Fukushima, wringing more energy savings out of Japanese homes and businesses has required changes in lifestyles or sacrifices to use another word.
In addition to cutting electricity consumption, Japan boosted the use of gas and coal to make electricity, increasing carbon emissions in the process. For the long-term, the Japanese have also embraced policies to increase sharply renewable energy, as Germany has done too, in reaction to the Fukushima disaster.
Prior to the March 11, 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan generated one-third of its electricity from nuclear power. Japan closing 52 of 54 nuclear reactors or one-third of its power in a year is the equivalent of the USA closing nearly all of its coal-fired power plants. Given how much of its power came from nuclear reactors, it boggles my mind to think Japan has done a "nuclear cold turkey."
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46676913/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.T1noiONSSEY.
What has Japan done to replace nearly all its considerable nuclear power? Super aggressive conservation practices have been the most important means to replace the lost power. Well before the Fukushima disaster, Japan was a world leader in energy efficiency so all the low-hanging efficiency fruit was picked long ago in Japan. After Fukushima, wringing more energy savings out of Japanese homes and businesses has required changes in lifestyles or sacrifices to use another word.
In addition to cutting electricity consumption, Japan boosted the use of gas and coal to make electricity, increasing carbon emissions in the process. For the long-term, the Japanese have also embraced policies to increase sharply renewable energy, as Germany has done too, in reaction to the Fukushima disaster.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson Fires Missiles At Obama Administration While Natural Gas Prices Head To $1.50
While Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson filed missiles yesterday at the Obama Administration for supposedly inhibiting the production of natural gas (see page 3 of today's Section C of the Wall Street Journal), the Henry Hub price closed yesterday at $2.18. Some of the smartest people in the energy business with whom I was this week at an International Energy Agency workshop in Warsaw, Poland are predicting a $1.50 price this spring.
Here are obsrvations I would make about claims that the Obama Administration is inhibiting gas production.
First, the Obama Administration is doing a lousy job of slowing down gas production if that were its goal, given 2011 was an all-time record production year.
Second, the Obama Administration is responding, as it must, to massive public concern about fracking. Yes, a lot of that concern is based on misinformation or outright propaganda but there are also real issues. And the level of public concern is real and large. Just ask Governor Christie, Mitt Romney's national co-chair, who implemented a one-year ban on fracking in New Jersey, what the public mood about "fracking" is in the Northeast.
Third, what is the biggest problem facing the gas industry today? Too little demand? Or too little production? $1.50 gas as a real possibility this spring answers those questions.
Fourth, the Obama Administration has done more to promote natural gas demand than any Administration in US history. Take a look at the EPA Air Toxic Rule as just one example. There are many more. And the Obama Administration has taken immense heat for these rules and other initiatives that promote natural gas demand.
Here are obsrvations I would make about claims that the Obama Administration is inhibiting gas production.
First, the Obama Administration is doing a lousy job of slowing down gas production if that were its goal, given 2011 was an all-time record production year.
Second, the Obama Administration is responding, as it must, to massive public concern about fracking. Yes, a lot of that concern is based on misinformation or outright propaganda but there are also real issues. And the level of public concern is real and large. Just ask Governor Christie, Mitt Romney's national co-chair, who implemented a one-year ban on fracking in New Jersey, what the public mood about "fracking" is in the Northeast.
Third, what is the biggest problem facing the gas industry today? Too little demand? Or too little production? $1.50 gas as a real possibility this spring answers those questions.
Fourth, the Obama Administration has done more to promote natural gas demand than any Administration in US history. Take a look at the EPA Air Toxic Rule as just one example. There are many more. And the Obama Administration has taken immense heat for these rules and other initiatives that promote natural gas demand.
PA Gas Royalty Checks Exceed $5 Billion
Royalty payments to mineral owners probably have exceeded the $5 billion mark, according to estimates done by the good folks at www.marcellusgas.org/graphs/PA#royal_current. Nearly 50% of the total payments have flowed into Washington and Greene counties. Both are located in Southwest Pennsylvania, where Marcellus gas wells not only have been drilled in large numbers but also have been connected to pipelines and are delivering gas to consumers.
The Marcellusgas.org folks also have interesting data on how much counties will collect in impact fees. They project that Bradford, Tioga, Washington, Lycoming, Susquehanna, and Greene are projected as the top 6 counties for impact fees.
The impact fees are based on wells drilled or developed, while royalty payments are based on gas volumes flowing into pipelines. Currently a lot of wells drilled are not connected to pipelines in Pennsylvania.
The Marcellusgas.org folks also have interesting data on how much counties will collect in impact fees. They project that Bradford, Tioga, Washington, Lycoming, Susquehanna, and Greene are projected as the top 6 counties for impact fees.
The impact fees are based on wells drilled or developed, while royalty payments are based on gas volumes flowing into pipelines. Currently a lot of wells drilled are not connected to pipelines in Pennsylvania.
Eagles Make Major Off-Season Acquisition: Wind and Solar
Last year's heralded crop of free agent signings led to an 8-8 season and no play-off spot, so the Eagles are re-powering for a Super Bowl. Yesterday, the Eagles announced that they had formed a new partnership with NRG that would install a 3 megawatt solar system and 14 micro wind turbines at Lincoln Financial Field.http://mobile.philly.com/sports/eagles/?wss=philly/sports/eagles&id=141085513. The Eagles remain the leading sports franchise dedicated to reducing environmental impacts through recycling, composting, and clean energy practices.
The wind and solar systems are scheduled to be operating by December 2012, when the Eagles should have clinched a playoff spot and be Super Bowl bound. Skeptical? Hope springs eternal for NFL fans in March of every year.
The wind and solar systems are scheduled to be operating by December 2012, when the Eagles should have clinched a playoff spot and be Super Bowl bound. Skeptical? Hope springs eternal for NFL fans in March of every year.
Booming US Car Sales, CAFE Standards, & Detroit At Half-time
Historically skyrocketing gas prices meant a loss of market share for the Big Three Detroit automakers to Japanese and other companies. Why? The Big Three simply did not make attractive, competitive fuel efficient cars so they lost market share when consumer preferences shifted to gas sippers and away from gas guzzlers.
In another sign that US carmakers are more competitive, despite the current jump of gas prices to a national average of $3.74, Detroit sold more cars in February than anytime since the collapse of the car market, following the 2008 economic meltdown.
Chrysler issued a statement: "Our product portfolio now contains some of the most fuel efficient vehicles in our company's history. A few years ago, higher fuel prices were a major threat to our total vehicle sales, whereas today, those higher prices have become far less of an issue."
Chrysler's February 2012 sales were 40% greater than in February 2011. While the companies themselves are responsible for building attractive cars that are selling well, raising the fuel efficiency standard for cars in 2009 helped to change how Detroit looked at the fuel efficient car segment of the
market and to prepare them for the era of high cost gasoline.
The February 2012 sales reached an annual rate of 15 million vehicles if sustained over a full year. After the US auto market collapsed from 16 million vehicles to an annual sales rate of 9 million vehicles after the economic collapse of 2008, it may be even past half-time in Detroit.
In another sign that US carmakers are more competitive, despite the current jump of gas prices to a national average of $3.74, Detroit sold more cars in February than anytime since the collapse of the car market, following the 2008 economic meltdown.
Chrysler issued a statement: "Our product portfolio now contains some of the most fuel efficient vehicles in our company's history. A few years ago, higher fuel prices were a major threat to our total vehicle sales, whereas today, those higher prices have become far less of an issue."
Chrysler's February 2012 sales were 40% greater than in February 2011. While the companies themselves are responsible for building attractive cars that are selling well, raising the fuel efficiency standard for cars in 2009 helped to change how Detroit looked at the fuel efficient car segment of the
market and to prepare them for the era of high cost gasoline.
The February 2012 sales reached an annual rate of 15 million vehicles if sustained over a full year. After the US auto market collapsed from 16 million vehicles to an annual sales rate of 9 million vehicles after the economic collapse of 2008, it may be even past half-time in Detroit.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)