Counting Down Top 10 Energy Facts: Numbers 2 And 1

2. Carbon Concentration In Atmosphere Exceeds 400 PPM

This year the world crossed the 400 parts per million atmospheric carbon concentration for the first time in more than 800,000 years.  That obviously is remarkable and could easily be the most important energy fact of 2013.

And to make the matter more stark, carbon pollution pours in increasing amounts into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels.  Our global carbon pollution problem is getting worse and worse. We are stepping on the accelerator and not hitting the brakes.

The question becomes, at what level will carbon concentrations plateau and stop rising? The fact that nobody knows the answer to that question should concern everyone. But it plainly does not.

1. Coal Is Fastest Growing Fossil Fuel In World

Coal is not king anymore in the USA, but coal is booming around the world. And so the atmospheric concentration of carbon skyrockets with no sign of slowdown ahead.

Indeed, coal is the fastest growing fossil fuel, growing faster than oil or gas, according to the IEA.
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/december/name,45994,en.html.
In fact, the IEA says coal will grow at the rate of 2.3% per year through 2018.

Outside the USA, low-priced coal is displacing gas to make electricity. The IEA says:

"Low international coal prices push gas out of the power generation sector, where competition is possible (except in the United States, where low gas prices are isolated from international levels)."

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTCoalMR2013SUM.pdf.

The sharply escalating amount of coal being mined and combusted makes depressingly small the prospect of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon at levels below 450 parts per million.  Moreover, the chances of keeping carbon atmospheric concentrations below a genuinely scary 500 parts per million are rapidly diminishing.

The fact that coal is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the world is the most important energy fact of 2013. And this fact drives home the reality that the world desperately needs an economic means to capture and store carbon.

Counting Down Top 10 Energy Facts---Numbers 4 & 3

4. Plummeting Solar Costs Build 5,000 Megawatts of Solar In US and 35,000 Megawatts Globally

Why did the US set another solar installation record this year, installing more than 5,000 megawatts of solar this year, the equivalent of a good-sized nuclear reactor? And why will 35,000 megawatts or more of solar be built around the world in 2013?
http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/13/global-solar-pv-installations-will-double-hit-grid-parity-by-2020/

Plummeting solar costs that make solar as cheap or cheaper than taking power from the grid in more and more parts of the USA and world is the reason why solar is booming near and far.

Solar continued this year its stunning decline in the costs of the panels, installation, and permitting.  Large solar projects in the US now cost less than $2 per watt and even small residential projects are down to $3 per watt.  And those prices do not include any tax credits or other incentives. Totally amazing pricing!

But even lower solar prices are ahead in 2014, with another 10% price decline forecasted!
http://costofsolar.com/solar-power-records-projected-for-2014-for-us-china-world/.

The amazing prices of 2013 meant that the solar industry built the equivalent of a good-sized nuclear plant just in the USA this year and will install the equivalent of 1 to 4 nuclear plants per year in 2014 and beyond. That much solar will fundamentally change our electricity and energy markets.

This picture is worth a thousand words and explains why solar power will be the ultimate disruptive energy technology.




3. Wind Power Costs Fall To 2.3 Cents/Kilowatt-hour, Making Wind Power Cheapest Energy Source

We keep being told that nuclear power renaissance and a wind power bust are around the corner. Pricing in 2013 proves neither will happen.

Nuclear power simply costs a fortune to build, to run, and to decommission. It is the country's most expensive source of new generation.  And so no renaissance in the USA is even on the distant horizon.

Unlike nuclear, wind power, however, has crashed, crushed costs so much so that utilities were buying more wind power at the end of 2013 than they had intended at the start of the year.
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2013/12/astonishing-facts-new-wind-farms-in-new.html.

Indeed, wind power has crushed its costs to such an extent that it is the lowest cost new generation in increasing parts of America, even when natural gas is at $4 per thousand cubic feet.  And wind's competitive position will improve, because the odds are good that both gas will cost more than $4 in the coming years and that wind will continue to decrease its costs.

Wind now provides 4% of America's electricity, but 2013 wind pricing insures that wind will generate 10% or more of America's power by 2030.

Counting Down The 10 Most Important Energy Facts Of 2013--Facts 7,6, and 5

The Countdown of the Ten Most Important Energy Facts of 2013 continues with Number 7:

7. Nuclear Production Falls Again Below 2010 Record Year, Confirming A Slow Decline In Nuclear Power

Though nuclear power has not had a burst of new plant construction, that is almost perpetually predicted to be around the corner, the nuclear industry had steadily increased output from the nation's nuclear fleet. Investments in existing nuclear plants that wrung more power from them were quietly made over decades.  And so, for 40 years, nuclear power production rose steadily and set new record production levels, even long after the industry added very few new plants to the fleet.

Now, the era is ended, when nuclear plants regularly set record production marks. Nuclear production peaked in 2010, at nearly 807 billion kilowatt-hours, or more than 4 times wind's 2013 output.
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_5.pdf.

This year will mark the third year in a row of nuclear production being less than its 2010 peak, confirming that America's nuclear power production has plateaued and may well have begun a slow decline. In addition, 5 nuclear units were scheduled for retirement and decommissioning this year. Three of those plants came to the end of the road because of mechanical problems that were too expensive to repair, but 2 others were running well.  Yet, their operational costs exceeded the low wholesale electricity prices they earned in competitive power markets.

Why are wholesale electricity prices low? Declining electricity demand, rising wind and solar production, and massive shale gas supplies that have driven down gas prices since 2008 from their high of $13 per thousand cubic feet.

Indeed, one analysis concluded that about 25% of the nation's nukes were vulnerable to closure simply because the costs of operating them exceeded the revenues they earned in wholesale electricity markets.  That is stunning, if accurate.

The slow decline of nuclear power production that has commenced since 2010 is reversible, but the odds are that it will not be. The two nuclear plants in Georgia, now under construction, will alone not be enough to do so.

If 2010 proves to be the all-time record high for US nuclear production, the task of curbing America's carbon and air pollution just got harder. Nuclear power remains America's single, biggest source of non-fossil fuel energy.


6. Marcellus Region Supplies 18% Of America's Natural Gas

The difference between gas glut and shortage in America is the Marcellus region's 13 billion cubic feet per day production--18% of America's gas supply. Whether one loves or hates it, Marcellus production is pivotal in national gas and electric power markets.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14091.

Natural gas prices rose from an average of $2.77 in 2012 to about $3.63 in 2013, a substantial increase from the rock bottom prices of last year.  Yet, had Marcellus gas production been removed from the market or had been reduced to 2010 levels of 2 billion cubic feet per day, America's natural gas price would have skyrocketed toward $8 for a thousand cubic feet or even higher at times.

Marcellus gas wells are among the most prolific shale wells in North America. That is one reason why the region's gas wells are also among America's lowest-cost to produce, highest profit margin units. Amazingly, despite those economics, Pennsylvania (unlike West Virginia) allowed another year of record gas production to pass without a drilling or severance tax.

Taxation, regulation, and zoning of gas production in the Marcellus region remain inadequate.  Most best practices, such as not using drilling wastewater pits, and technologies still are not required in the region.

Strong public opposition in New York meant that it continued its moratorium during 2013.  A moratorium issued in 2010 of further leasing of Pennsylvania's state forests also continued.  Then in an important decision at the of 2013 that may shape 2014 regulation of gas drilling in Pennsylvania, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court declared unconstitutional Act 13 that had preempted local zoning of gas drilling.


5. Electric Car Sales Breakthrough To Annual Rate of 100,000 Plus

The electric car revolution gained escape velocity in 2013. Large numbers of new models entered the marketplace. Prices fell. Tesla's stock soared.

Consumers responded to more models and lower prices, buying 9,000-10,400 per month at the end of 2013 or at an annual rate of more than 100,000.  Sales in 2013 were double 2012 numbers.  Rising sales means more electric vehicles on the road, with the total now exceeding 170,000.
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2013/11/ford-tops-electric-vehicle-sales-in.html.

The sales momentum in 2013 creates the possibility that electric car sales could achieve a rate of 1% of monthly sales by the end of 2014. That will be an historic milestone when, not if, it is achieved.

Virtually nothing is more important to the America's economy, environment, and national security than transitioning our transportation fleet from oil. And so the strong rise in electric vehicle sales in 2013 is a truly important energy fact of 2013.

Counting Down The 10 Most Important Energy Facts Of 2013

Bio-diesel, solar, and wind production set records, as did electric car sales and global carbon pollution, during 2013. This year, the US oil and gas booms continued, while US coal production and exports declined. Yet, around the world, coal consumption grew faster than any other fossil fuel.

Politics rippled through the world of energy, with the start of 2013 featuring the extension of the wind production tax credit by Congress and the launching of right-wing attacks on state renewable energy requirements that had no success over the following 12 months.  New York continued its shale gas moratorium, 4 towns in Colorado passed by referendums local moratoriums, and the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional Act 13 that had sharply limited local zoning powers over gas drilling. But California and Illinois enacted statutes regulating, permitting shale gas production.

This year is part of remarkable energy times that began in 2007. So, picking the 10 most important energy facts of action-packed 2013 is no easy task but onward!

10. Electricity Demand Falls In 5 of 6 Years

Once upon a time, actually not so long ago, electricity demand increased almost every year by 1% to 2%. But starting in 2008. something strange happened. Electricity demand in the United States declined in 4 of the 5 years from 2008 to 2012. And consumption in 2013 may be lower again!
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14291.

Falling electricity demand is not the result of a shrinking economy. Indeed, US GDP has risen every quarter since July 2009 and our economy is now substantially bigger in real terms than it was in 2007, when a near depression commenced. So, what's going on with electricity demand?

Distributed solar, smart grids and meters, energy efficient lighting, appliances, motors, and buildings are all cutting demand. And lower demand is depressing wholesale electricity prices. In turn, low wholesale electricity prices are pressuring inefficient coal plants and even nuclear units, leading to some surprising coal-plant and nuclear closures in 2013.

Declining electricity demand in 5 of the last 6 years is a startling and important energy fact of 2013.


9. Gas Industry Flares 30% of Gas In North Dakota

Flaring of natural gas in North Dakota is essentially out of control, burning $100 million of product a month, and emitting 4.5 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. Those are big numbers, and the economic loss has caused landowners to sue to recover lost royalty payments that have literally gone up in smoke.

But what is most telling about the gas flaring in North Dakota is the attitude it demonstrates about environmentally responsible operations among those companies doing it and the regulators allowing it. That attitude reveals itself in other ways around America in things like drilling pits for wastewater and not using available pollution controls that could cut air emissions by 90% from compressor stations.

Simply, the attitude that fuels North Dakota flaring is burning not only gas but also large swaths of public opinion. It represents a view that environmental protection comes second to profit maximization. That view is not shared by most Americans and is certainly not what they want in their neighborhoods.
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2013/10/flaring-of-gas-in-north-dakota-jumps.html;
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2013/07/flaring-in-north-dakota-burns-oil-and.html


8. New York's Air Cleanest In 50 Years, Saving 800 Lives Per Year

Clean air regulations and energy economics are causing a massive switch from oil to natural gas in New York City.  As a consequence of switching from more expensive, dirtier oil, consumers are saving money, the air is cleaner in New York City than anytime in the last 50 years, and 800 lives per year are being saved, according to a public health study. That's a wonderful and important energy fact.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/pr2013/pr035-13.shtml.

Yet, the gas that is displacing dirtier oil is coming largely from local communities in Pennsylvania, where best practices and best technologies are not being used and where pollution is higher as a result.
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2013/09/new-york-citys-clean-air-must-not-come.html.

It's past time to mandate the best pollution controls at compressor stations, to limit substantially flaring, to require green completions at gas wells, to ban pits for drilling wastewater, and to insist that best practices and technologies be routinely used to reduce pollution in local areas where gas is produced. New York City's clean air must not come at the expense of dirty air in the gas fields around America.

The combination of less energy demand as well as renewable energy and gas displacing coal and oil is cutting significantly across America soot, mercury, lead, arsenic, and other air pollutants that sicken and kill. But these national advances make it a moral imperative to protect local communities where gas drilling takes place.

For in some of these gas drilling communities, air quality is worse, not better. That injustice must not be accepted!


Tomorrow, the Countdown continues with Number 7.

New Study Finds Texas Will Increase Renewable Energy By 150% To 330% But Add No Coal Capacity

Texas is a power generation giant, and how Texas generates electricity will be a model for America. In short, Texas charts America's power generation future more surely than any other state!

Today, like America, Texas relies on coal, gas, nuclear, and renewable energy. Indeed, renewable energy, nearly all of it wind, accounts for 10% of Texas's power, a bit less than the 14% green power provides America. But change is sweeping through how Texas generates electricity.

A new study finds that Texas will add no new coal or nuclear capacity between now and 2032. Zero new coal, as Texas ramps up natural gas and renewable energy generation.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tcec-led-report-finds-renewable-energy-and-natural-gas-both-play-substantial-roles-in-future-texas-electric-market-235240401.html.

Texas's reliance on renewable energy generation jumps from 10% today to 25% or possibly 43%.  The trend lines for renewable energy are one more indication that the most recent EIA's 2040 renewable energy projection nears silliness.

Here is what the study states:

• Across the more likely scenarios, wind and solar grow from their current 10 percent generation share to levels between 25 and 43 percent. Natural gas-fired generation provides all of the remaining incremental generation, adding 12 to 25 gigwatts of new combined-cycle capacity – a 38 to 80 percent increase in the current installed base.

• The mix of new gas and renewables generation is sensitive to the price of natural gas and cost declines in wind and solar power. Changes in these three factors can cause significant shifts in the mix of future installations, leading to a wide range of plausible generation shares for wind, solar, and natural gas.

PA Supreme Court Knocks Down Bullying Act 13 But Will The Gas Industry Double Down?

Ever since Governor Corbett was elected, whatever the gas industry wanted it received.  One timeless lesson of the remarkable decision by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is to be careful for what you ask.
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20131222_What_Pa__court_s_ruling_on_gas-drilling_law_means.html.

That is a lesson that the gas industry forgot in 2011, when it used its political muscle and Governor Corbett's unquestioning support, to ram through the Pennsylvania General Assembly Act 13. The gas industry got what it asked for and showed that it preferred to bully state government than be a good neighbor in municipalities across Pennsylvania.

The question now becomes, will the gas industry double down on its bully tactics and jam through another state law?  Early indications are that it is likely to  do just that!

Or will the gas industry head in a different direction that works with local governments, land owners, lease holders, and even those who experience negative impacts from gas drilling? This path requires more work, more restraint, more respect for the diversity of opinion across Pennsylvania. Working with neighbors means correcting mistakes without the need for suits, installing pollution controls that are the best, even when they cost a bit more in the short run, not drilling in some locations, and paying a drilling tax.

The gas industry must choose whether it will be the neighborhood bully. Attacking zoning once more will be doubling down on bully laws.

Paradoxically, the fact that the Governor will give the gas industry whatever it wants creates a trap for the industry itself. So far, the industry has consistently showed that it cannot discipline itself to be careful for what it asks. The temptation is just too great and over-reach is the result.

The ball is now back in the gas industry's court. Will it be more bully ball? If so, opposition to the gas industry, already significant, will rise and intensify. Be careful for what one asks!

Green Power: Renewable Energy Is 100% Of New Generation Added In November

All--100%--of the new generation added in America during November was renewable energy.
http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2013/nov-energy-infrastructure.pdf.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reports that 394 megawatts of utility scale generation became operational in November. This total does not include distributed generation and substantially understates total new generation as a result. Specifically, large amounts of solar generation are not reflected in the FERC data.