A horrendous trait in the fracking debate is that the two camps at the opposite ends of the spectrum that oppose any middle ground are thoroughly committed to not listening to what the other says. The committed pro-drilling and anti-drilling voices dismiss information on the basis of who said it, without regard to what was said.
Energy In Depth can be ignored, because it always makes a pro-drilling case. NRDC can be dismissed, because it highlights all the perils and accidents of drilling. In both camps, minds are firmly closed. "A closed mind is as dangerous as a closed parachute," as the saying goes.
Some within the gas industry reacted in this fashion to comments filed by Dr. Myers on behalf of NRDC and other environmental groups with the EPA on its Pavillion Wyoming investigation. Whether one agrees with them or not, Dr. Myers' comments deserve a respectful reading, as they are not polemical and make some important points. docs.nrdc.org/energy/files/ene_12050101a.pdf.
They even make one point that should find broad agreement in the industry and that is the geology and circumstances of hydraulic fracuturing in Pavillion make it unwise to extrapolate from what happened there to other places. As the EPA itself said prominently in its draft paper, the Pavillion circumstances add up to a unique case.
Though the discussion by Dr. Myers of the various chemistry findings within the draft is worth reading by all but contestable at a number of points, I would hope that the industry broadly would join with the EPA and Dr. Myers and conclude that some of the drilling and hydraulic fracturing practices revealed at Pavillion are not acceptable. These practices--hydraulic fracturing within a few hundred feet of an aquifer, absence of cementing, poor cementing, inadequate casing--should not be acceptable, whether or not they caused pollution of the aquifer at Pavillion.
To some extent, given what has been revealed about the quality of drilling and hydraulic fracturing at Pavillion, the arguments about chemistry and contaminants and sampling are beside the point. Saying that the hydraulic fracturing and drilling practices used at Pavillion are not acceptable should not be controversial and should be said by everyone.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
EIA Reports New Generation Capacity Exceeding Retirements By 2.5 To 1
The retirement of a power plant normally triggers media coverage, but the start of operations at power facilities often happens without attention. The impression that can be left by this imbalance of coverage is that electric power retirements are greatly exceeding the opening of new generation capacity.
In fact, in the first two months of 2012, new power plant capacity coming on line exceeded plant capacity retiring by a capacity ratio of about 2.5 to 1. Specifically, 2,906.9 megawatts of generation capacity began operation and 1,213 megawatts of capacity ceased generation, during January and February 2012.
www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
America has currently 1,058,052 megawatts of capacity available. The capacity added in the first two months of 2012 included mainly natural gas and renewables but a small amount of new coal too. Much of the capacity added is relatively small units, such as many landfill gas and solar projects.
Perhaps, the fact new capacity often comes in the form of many, smaller units, as opposed to a few massive plants, is one reason why the new generation draws little attention. But, as the data from EIA shows, the new generation exists and is much cleaner than what it replaces.
In fact, in the first two months of 2012, new power plant capacity coming on line exceeded plant capacity retiring by a capacity ratio of about 2.5 to 1. Specifically, 2,906.9 megawatts of generation capacity began operation and 1,213 megawatts of capacity ceased generation, during January and February 2012.
www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
America has currently 1,058,052 megawatts of capacity available. The capacity added in the first two months of 2012 included mainly natural gas and renewables but a small amount of new coal too. Much of the capacity added is relatively small units, such as many landfill gas and solar projects.
Perhaps, the fact new capacity often comes in the form of many, smaller units, as opposed to a few massive plants, is one reason why the new generation draws little attention. But, as the data from EIA shows, the new generation exists and is much cleaner than what it replaces.
2012 Electricity Generation Scoreboard: What's Up & Down?
America is fast moving toward more natural gas and renewable energy electricity and less coal, as the most recent electricity generation scoreboard shows.
So far the leaders in 2012 are gas, wind, solar, and biomass, while hydro, petroleum, and coal struggle, according to EIA data for January and February 2012. www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
Compared to the same months in 2011, natural gas generation is up 30.1%; wind 29.6%; solar 70%, and biomass up 4%. Gas and non-hydro renewables are growing rapidly.
Hydro saw a 12% drop so far in 2012, as river flows are lower now than during a wet first half of 2011. Oil generation fell another 32.0% but provides very little total electricity. Coal declined 21.5%. And nuclear was down a bit--0.9%.
All that added up to a decrease in national electricity consumption of 3.9%, during this January and February, compared to the same months in 2011.
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So far the leaders in 2012 are gas, wind, solar, and biomass, while hydro, petroleum, and coal struggle, according to EIA data for January and February 2012. www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
Compared to the same months in 2011, natural gas generation is up 30.1%; wind 29.6%; solar 70%, and biomass up 4%. Gas and non-hydro renewables are growing rapidly.
Hydro saw a 12% drop so far in 2012, as river flows are lower now than during a wet first half of 2011. Oil generation fell another 32.0% but provides very little total electricity. Coal declined 21.5%. And nuclear was down a bit--0.9%.
All that added up to a decrease in national electricity consumption of 3.9%, during this January and February, compared to the same months in 2011.
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Thursday, May 3, 2012
Wind Has A Record First Quarter For New Generation But Dark Clouds Forming
The 2012 first quarter wind power results document both that wind power is big business and that tens of thousands of jobs could be created or lost in the months ahead.
Another 1,695 megawatts of new wind power came on line during the first quarter, according to the American Wind Energy Association. http://www.awea.org/. The 2012 first quarter was up 52%, compared to same period in 2011, and was so strong that it set a record for the most megawatts installed in a first quarter.
Yet, the healthy wind gains are the start of the 2012 surge that increasingly could lead to a period of calm, if the production tax credit that expires at the end of this year is not extended. Layoffs are already increasing in the wind manufacturing supply chain, as orders for 2013 fall substantially. More than 37,000 jobs are in the process of being lost at least temporarily by the failure of Congress to extend the production tax credit.
As such, it is both the best and worst of times in the wind industry. Wind construction jobs are at high levels but manufacturing and development positions are shrinking.
At the end of the first quarter, the US wind capacity stood at 48,611 megawatts, and wind generation is nearing 4% of US electricity supply, according to EIA data. The top 5 states during January to March were California (370 MW), Oregon, (308 MW), Texas (254 MW), Washington (127 MW), and Pennsylvania (121 MW). Pennsylvania increased its wind capacity by 15%.
Impressively another 8,916 megawatts of wind power is under construction in 31 states and Puerto Rico, making it probable that 2012 could see more than 10,000 megawatts of wind power built.
Another 1,695 megawatts of new wind power came on line during the first quarter, according to the American Wind Energy Association. http://www.awea.org/. The 2012 first quarter was up 52%, compared to same period in 2011, and was so strong that it set a record for the most megawatts installed in a first quarter.
Yet, the healthy wind gains are the start of the 2012 surge that increasingly could lead to a period of calm, if the production tax credit that expires at the end of this year is not extended. Layoffs are already increasing in the wind manufacturing supply chain, as orders for 2013 fall substantially. More than 37,000 jobs are in the process of being lost at least temporarily by the failure of Congress to extend the production tax credit.
As such, it is both the best and worst of times in the wind industry. Wind construction jobs are at high levels but manufacturing and development positions are shrinking.
At the end of the first quarter, the US wind capacity stood at 48,611 megawatts, and wind generation is nearing 4% of US electricity supply, according to EIA data. The top 5 states during January to March were California (370 MW), Oregon, (308 MW), Texas (254 MW), Washington (127 MW), and Pennsylvania (121 MW). Pennsylvania increased its wind capacity by 15%.
Impressively another 8,916 megawatts of wind power is under construction in 31 states and Puerto Rico, making it probable that 2012 could see more than 10,000 megawatts of wind power built.
PPP Again Documents Romney's Third Party Peril But Most Pundits Oblivious
The Presidential race remains on track to be close, a contest where small things could make a difference. History shows an obvious difference-maker are third party candidates.
Yet, apparently Public Policy Polling (PPP) is the only pollster that realizes the 2012 ballot will include "third parties," because it alone seems to poll the Presidential race by offering names beyond Romney and Obama. And PPP finds that third party candidates importantly change numbers. In addition to Governor Johnson of the Libertarian Party, former Congressman Virgil Goode is moving numbers, at least in the critical state of Virginia, where his former Congressional district is located.
PPP's latest survey of Virginia has Obama leading Romney 51 to 43 in a head-to-head race. But former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode is the Presidential nominee of the far-right Constitution Party. When he is included in the polling question for Virginia, Obama falls to 50%; Romney drops further to 38%; and Goode gets 5%. www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-tops-romney-by-8-in-va-even-with-mcdonnell.html#more.
How important is Goode's possible impact? It could be crucial, even if Goode's numbers shrink closer to the election, as they likely will. Goode is drawing about 5 votes from Romney for every one vote he pulls from Obama in Virginia so, even if Goode gets 2% of the vote in Virginia, he could tip the state.
Governor Romney can win the Presidency without capturing Virginia, but it becomes really difficult for him. For example, an Obama win in Virginia means that he could lose either Pennsylvania or Ohio and still win the election. Obama winning both Virginia and Colorado, a state where Governor Johnson and Goode both could be factors, makes Romney's climb Everest-like.
The PPP poll shows that Congressman Goode hurts Romney in Virginia and by so doing could impact the entire 2012 outcome, as Ralph Nader did by swinging Florida and New Hampshire to George Bush in 2000. Goode will also be on the ballot in Colorado, probably Pennsylvania, and other states, though he will have much less impact beyond his home state of Virginia.
Given their historic impact of third party candidates, and the PPP data so far this year on Johnson and Goode, it is bewildering why most pollsters are not testing consistently the key third party candidates and why most media analysis is oblivious to the importance of third party candidates. PPP's results document that polls that fail to do so have another source of error.
Yet, apparently Public Policy Polling (PPP) is the only pollster that realizes the 2012 ballot will include "third parties," because it alone seems to poll the Presidential race by offering names beyond Romney and Obama. And PPP finds that third party candidates importantly change numbers. In addition to Governor Johnson of the Libertarian Party, former Congressman Virgil Goode is moving numbers, at least in the critical state of Virginia, where his former Congressional district is located.
PPP's latest survey of Virginia has Obama leading Romney 51 to 43 in a head-to-head race. But former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode is the Presidential nominee of the far-right Constitution Party. When he is included in the polling question for Virginia, Obama falls to 50%; Romney drops further to 38%; and Goode gets 5%. www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-tops-romney-by-8-in-va-even-with-mcdonnell.html#more.
How important is Goode's possible impact? It could be crucial, even if Goode's numbers shrink closer to the election, as they likely will. Goode is drawing about 5 votes from Romney for every one vote he pulls from Obama in Virginia so, even if Goode gets 2% of the vote in Virginia, he could tip the state.
Governor Romney can win the Presidency without capturing Virginia, but it becomes really difficult for him. For example, an Obama win in Virginia means that he could lose either Pennsylvania or Ohio and still win the election. Obama winning both Virginia and Colorado, a state where Governor Johnson and Goode both could be factors, makes Romney's climb Everest-like.
The PPP poll shows that Congressman Goode hurts Romney in Virginia and by so doing could impact the entire 2012 outcome, as Ralph Nader did by swinging Florida and New Hampshire to George Bush in 2000. Goode will also be on the ballot in Colorado, probably Pennsylvania, and other states, though he will have much less impact beyond his home state of Virginia.
Given their historic impact of third party candidates, and the PPP data so far this year on Johnson and Goode, it is bewildering why most pollsters are not testing consistently the key third party candidates and why most media analysis is oblivious to the importance of third party candidates. PPP's results document that polls that fail to do so have another source of error.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Prius Sales Surge But Volt and Leaf Sales Fall
The Prius is America's number 5 top seller, trailing just the Ford F-Series, Camry/Solara, Accord, and Chevy Silverado. Consumers seeking to cut their gasoline bill snapped up 25,168 Prius models in April .
pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+sales+increase+april+2012.htm. The month set an all-time record for sales of the Prius.
The sales news for the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf were not as good. Sales fell compared to the previous month for both, but the April Volt sales of more than 1,400 cars were considerably higher than the January and February numbers. www.plugincars.com/chevy-volt-sales-still-sizzling-nissan-leaf-slumps-april-2012-120922.html.
April was another good month for the emerging electric vehicle options.
pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+sales+increase+april+2012.htm. The month set an all-time record for sales of the Prius.
The sales news for the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf were not as good. Sales fell compared to the previous month for both, but the April Volt sales of more than 1,400 cars were considerably higher than the January and February numbers. www.plugincars.com/chevy-volt-sales-still-sizzling-nissan-leaf-slumps-april-2012-120922.html.
April was another good month for the emerging electric vehicle options.
Massive Switching To Gas Causes BusinessWeek To Ask, "Is Coal Doomed?" It's Not
The large switching from coal to natural gas in the USA caused The Atlantic and Business Week to write big stories about the future of coal, leading with the question, "Is coal doomed?" http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/is-coal-doomed/256455/#.T5xC0_3ibqg.email. Also see http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-26/coals-future-is-rocky-at-best. Coal is not doomed, because it remains the lowest cost source of energy in most of the world. Developing economic carbon capture and sequestration technology, however, is essential to coal's global, long-term future.
While Deutsche Bank predicts that coal will provide just 20% of US electricity supply by 2030, down from more than 50% in 2000, slumping coal demand has finally triggered a 45% price plummet in Powder River Basin coal so far in 2012 and a 24% drop in the price of Appalachian coal over the last year. The price war between coal and gas is intense. Coal's recent steep price declines will make it more competitive with natural gas in the USA during the next few years, if coal can be sustainably produced at today's much lower prices.
While intense price competition with natural gas is stressing coal in the USA, natural gas prices around the world are now 4 to 5 times what they are in the USA. Coal is the low-cost energy provider in most parts of the world.
Unsurprisingly, given coal's global price competitiveness, coal demand is actually growing globally, mainly as a result of burgeoning demand from China and India. But even in those markets, warning signs for coal's future can be seen on the horizon.
Importantly, both China and India are beginning development of natural gas resources, including potentially very large shale gas resources. China is building an incredible 27 nuclear reactors, and India is increasing nuclear investment too. In addition, both nations are among the world's biggest and fastest growing renewable energy markets.
Though rising global sales of coal mean that coal for the next 10 years is secure around the world, coal's future over the next 40 years is another matter. The fuel's long-term future hinges on the development of economical carbon capture and storage technology.
Research and development of such technology should be the top priority for the coal industry and a major priority for governments and advocates concerned about climate. Everyone has a big stake in making coal a zero carbon fuel.
While Deutsche Bank predicts that coal will provide just 20% of US electricity supply by 2030, down from more than 50% in 2000, slumping coal demand has finally triggered a 45% price plummet in Powder River Basin coal so far in 2012 and a 24% drop in the price of Appalachian coal over the last year. The price war between coal and gas is intense. Coal's recent steep price declines will make it more competitive with natural gas in the USA during the next few years, if coal can be sustainably produced at today's much lower prices.
While intense price competition with natural gas is stressing coal in the USA, natural gas prices around the world are now 4 to 5 times what they are in the USA. Coal is the low-cost energy provider in most parts of the world.
Unsurprisingly, given coal's global price competitiveness, coal demand is actually growing globally, mainly as a result of burgeoning demand from China and India. But even in those markets, warning signs for coal's future can be seen on the horizon.
Importantly, both China and India are beginning development of natural gas resources, including potentially very large shale gas resources. China is building an incredible 27 nuclear reactors, and India is increasing nuclear investment too. In addition, both nations are among the world's biggest and fastest growing renewable energy markets.
Though rising global sales of coal mean that coal for the next 10 years is secure around the world, coal's future over the next 40 years is another matter. The fuel's long-term future hinges on the development of economical carbon capture and storage technology.
Research and development of such technology should be the top priority for the coal industry and a major priority for governments and advocates concerned about climate. Everyone has a big stake in making coal a zero carbon fuel.
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