Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Debt Deal Kills 1.8 Million Jobs In 2012

Just after the ink dried on the "Debt Deal," the Economic Policy Institute estimates that it will decrease 2012 GDP by 0.3% and destroy 1.8 million jobs (www.epi.org). The CEO of PIMCO, a leading bond investment firm, also said the deal will decrease demand, lower growth, and raise unemployment.

No wonder that the stock market lost more than 200 points and West Texas oil fell to $94.

Markets Shudder As Austerity Economics Rules DC

After 30 years of fiscal recklessness, with the Clinton Presidency period of responsibility, no doubt exists that the USA has a long- term debt problem. That problem becomes devastating without economic growth. paying down the debt in a stagnant or shrinking economy will not happen.

And to make matters worse since 2007, we have had a job crisis, with falling or weak demand. The job crisis is real and now.

Oil and stock markets gave a big thumbs down to the debt deal, reading it as a sign that austerity now ruled and economic growth and stimulating demand were secondary priorities.

Yesterday the markets signaled that the US may well tip into recession. That will make all problems worse, including the deficit and debt.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Green Power Consumers Exceed 1.1 Million

Electricity customers buying renewable energy were 1,123,778 in 2009, up 6% from 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration.  There were 680 sellers of renewable electricity in 2009 that include electric utilities, competitive electricity suppliers, renewable energy credit companies.

Texas with 316, 585 renewable energy customers led the nation. Oregon with 127,290 and California with 85,000 were second and third. 

In 2009 Pennsylvania was 8th with 35,335.  Today Pennsylvania is probably second, as substantial shopping for electricity has taken place in Pennsylvania in 2010 and the first half of 2011.  Green power products are available in all markets.

I am purchasing a 100% wind product from Washington Gas for my home in the PPL electric service territory.  I chose the product, because the wind is generated in Pennsylvania and Maryland.  Purchasing wind from your state or local area will benefit your local economy and your local air quality, while buying Texas wind when in Pennsylvania will export many of the benefits of your purchase.

Buying green power for your home or business is the single biggest step one can take in most cases to reduce your personal environmental footprint.  The family home is responsible for twice the pollution than the family car.  I strongly recommend buying green power and local or home-state green power.

Net Metering Booms; Jumps 38%

Homes and businesses that generate their own electricity and sell back to the grid excess production that they do not use are "net metered" accounts, and their number grew by 38% in 2009, according to the Energy Information Administration.

In 2009, 96,506 electricity accounts were net metering in America, up from 70,009 in 2008.  These homes and businesses are at the heart of distributed generation.

A total of 540 electric utilities in 2009 allowed for net metering.  The terms and conditions of net metering programs vary widely.

I would be willing to bet that the number today of net metered homes and businesses is around 200,000, as there has been explosive growth in net metering around the nation in the last 18 months driven by a roaring solar market.  Not all solar installations are net metered but many are.
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But back to the 2009 data that show 55% of the net metered accounts were in California, with Colorado second at 7,804 accounts, New Jersey third, Arizona fourth, New York fifth.  Pennsylvania was 16th in 2009, with 650 net metered accounts, of which 552 were residential and 98 commercial.  Again there has been massive growth since 2009, and I know that today Pennsylvania has several thousand net metered accounts.

As the grid grows smarter and generation becomes more distributed, net metering will go from about 0.1% of all accounts in 2009 to a significant share of the electricity market.  And go quickly.

Monday, August 1, 2011

Fascinating Gallup Poll Confirms Nation Tilts Center-Right

The Gallup Poll  each year asks Americans to self-identify their political philosophy.  The 2011 results are available (http://www.gallup.com/), with 41% self-identifying as conservative, 36% moderate, and 21% liberal.  These results confirm that the nation tilts center-right but can easily move center-left.

These numbers also show why Republican and Democratic parties get into electoral trouble when they cater to their ideological base and make moderates uncomfortable.

There are also interesting differences among the political philosophies of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.

The Republican party is 72% conservative, 24% moderate, and 4% liberal.  The Rockefeller wing has just about died out, with now moderates often  derisively called Republicans In Name Only or RINO by the ascendant conservatives that control the Republican party.

The Democratic Party's biggest block is moderate voters at 39%, with liberals at 38%, and conservatives at a far from inconsequential 22%.  The Democratic Party is much more ideologically diverse or fractious than the much more cohesive Republican Party.

The fastest growing category of voter is Independent.  The biggest block of Independent voters are moderate voters at 44%, with conservatives next at 35%, and liberals at 20%.

No matter ones political philosophy, I would urge that citizens put facts at the center of understanding what works and what makes sense.  Doing so requires more effort, even work, as fact-centered thinking contradicts the ideological shortcut to knowing what is "right."   Moderates embrace fact-centered thinking more readily than highly ideological voters of the right and left.  But fact-centered thinking is good for all political persuasions.

US Begins Sound National Energy Policy With 54.5 MPG Standard

Last week's agreement between the federal government and automakers to raise for the second time since 2009 the CAFE standard is a keystone to a national energy policy that ends oil imports, protects the US economy from oil price shocks, and slashes heat trapping pollution that has already raised average temperatures by 2 degrees.

Fuel efficiency plus substituting natural gas, electricity, biodiesel for oil is the road to ending our sickening, dangerous oil addiction.

Raising the fuel efficiency standard to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 will decrease US carbon emissions by about 650 million tons per year or 10% of the total. Pennsylvania emits about 320 miLlion tons of carbon each year from all sources--power plants, homes, factories, transportation--so this CAFE increase reduces carbon pollution by twice what Pennsylvania emits.Cars and trucks account for about 20% of total carbon emissions.

The 54.5 mpg CAFE standard will save car owners $3,000 in gasoline costs, and also cushion our economy from oil price shocks likemtha experienced this year when gasoline jumped to $4. At that price median income families spent about 10% of their disposable income on filling the
tank, leaving less for other purchases, thereby slowing the economy further.

This agreement is the second time President Obama has negotiated a major increase in the CAFE standard, and it alone is a major piece of a real energy policy that works for the USA.

A Big Weekend On The NYT Gas Beat

The weekend was a rollercoaster for the NYT gas reporter and his gas beat.  On saturday, he had a story in which he crowed that his June 26th story painting the shale gas industry as a Ponzi scheme filled with Enrons had triggered an SEC investigation of one or more unnamed gas companies.

Then Sunday bought a deep, stomach-churning drop when the Public Editor of the NYT for an incredible second time chastised the NYT gas reporter for manipulations that mislead readers. 

The June 27th story charging the Energy Information Administration with cooking the shale gas data books was this time the object of the Public Editor's Sunday, July 31st chastisement.  The Public Editor on July 17th had heavily criticized the NYT gas reporter and his June 26th story. 

That is an extraordinary two strikes from the NYT Public Editor.  Both pieces focus on techniques--huge use of anonymous sources, misleading descriptors of sources to inflate their credibility with readers, leaving out key information contradicting the narrative told--that the NYT gas reporter uses consistently in his gas reporting.

The two broadsides from the NYT Public Editor are warnings to readers interested in the truth and to guardians of journalistic integrity. Yet, who are those guardians at the NYT?

To catch up and stay current on the saga of the NYT Gas Reporter, please see the Statements posted on Saturday and Sunday.