The retirement of a power plant normally triggers media coverage, but the start of operations at power facilities often happens without attention. The impression that can be left by this imbalance of coverage is that electric power retirements are greatly exceeding the opening of new generation capacity.
In fact, in the first two months of 2012, new power plant capacity coming on line exceeded plant capacity retiring by a capacity ratio of about 2.5 to 1. Specifically, 2,906.9 megawatts of generation capacity began operation and 1,213 megawatts of capacity ceased generation, during January and February 2012.
www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
America has currently 1,058,052 megawatts of capacity available. The capacity added in the first two months of 2012 included mainly natural gas and renewables but a small amount of new coal too. Much of the capacity added is relatively small units, such as many landfill gas and solar projects.
Perhaps, the fact new capacity often comes in the form of many, smaller units, as opposed to a few massive plants, is one reason why the new generation draws little attention. But, as the data from EIA shows, the new generation exists and is much cleaner than what it replaces.
Friday, May 4, 2012
2012 Electricity Generation Scoreboard: What's Up & Down?
America is fast moving toward more natural gas and renewable energy electricity and less coal, as the most recent electricity generation scoreboard shows.
So far the leaders in 2012 are gas, wind, solar, and biomass, while hydro, petroleum, and coal struggle, according to EIA data for January and February 2012. www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
Compared to the same months in 2011, natural gas generation is up 30.1%; wind 29.6%; solar 70%, and biomass up 4%. Gas and non-hydro renewables are growing rapidly.
Hydro saw a 12% drop so far in 2012, as river flows are lower now than during a wet first half of 2011. Oil generation fell another 32.0% but provides very little total electricity. Coal declined 21.5%. And nuclear was down a bit--0.9%.
All that added up to a decrease in national electricity consumption of 3.9%, during this January and February, compared to the same months in 2011.
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So far the leaders in 2012 are gas, wind, solar, and biomass, while hydro, petroleum, and coal struggle, according to EIA data for January and February 2012. www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf.
Compared to the same months in 2011, natural gas generation is up 30.1%; wind 29.6%; solar 70%, and biomass up 4%. Gas and non-hydro renewables are growing rapidly.
Hydro saw a 12% drop so far in 2012, as river flows are lower now than during a wet first half of 2011. Oil generation fell another 32.0% but provides very little total electricity. Coal declined 21.5%. And nuclear was down a bit--0.9%.
All that added up to a decrease in national electricity consumption of 3.9%, during this January and February, compared to the same months in 2011.
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Thursday, May 3, 2012
Wind Has A Record First Quarter For New Generation But Dark Clouds Forming
The 2012 first quarter wind power results document both that wind power is big business and that tens of thousands of jobs could be created or lost in the months ahead.
Another 1,695 megawatts of new wind power came on line during the first quarter, according to the American Wind Energy Association. http://www.awea.org/. The 2012 first quarter was up 52%, compared to same period in 2011, and was so strong that it set a record for the most megawatts installed in a first quarter.
Yet, the healthy wind gains are the start of the 2012 surge that increasingly could lead to a period of calm, if the production tax credit that expires at the end of this year is not extended. Layoffs are already increasing in the wind manufacturing supply chain, as orders for 2013 fall substantially. More than 37,000 jobs are in the process of being lost at least temporarily by the failure of Congress to extend the production tax credit.
As such, it is both the best and worst of times in the wind industry. Wind construction jobs are at high levels but manufacturing and development positions are shrinking.
At the end of the first quarter, the US wind capacity stood at 48,611 megawatts, and wind generation is nearing 4% of US electricity supply, according to EIA data. The top 5 states during January to March were California (370 MW), Oregon, (308 MW), Texas (254 MW), Washington (127 MW), and Pennsylvania (121 MW). Pennsylvania increased its wind capacity by 15%.
Impressively another 8,916 megawatts of wind power is under construction in 31 states and Puerto Rico, making it probable that 2012 could see more than 10,000 megawatts of wind power built.
Another 1,695 megawatts of new wind power came on line during the first quarter, according to the American Wind Energy Association. http://www.awea.org/. The 2012 first quarter was up 52%, compared to same period in 2011, and was so strong that it set a record for the most megawatts installed in a first quarter.
Yet, the healthy wind gains are the start of the 2012 surge that increasingly could lead to a period of calm, if the production tax credit that expires at the end of this year is not extended. Layoffs are already increasing in the wind manufacturing supply chain, as orders for 2013 fall substantially. More than 37,000 jobs are in the process of being lost at least temporarily by the failure of Congress to extend the production tax credit.
As such, it is both the best and worst of times in the wind industry. Wind construction jobs are at high levels but manufacturing and development positions are shrinking.
At the end of the first quarter, the US wind capacity stood at 48,611 megawatts, and wind generation is nearing 4% of US electricity supply, according to EIA data. The top 5 states during January to March were California (370 MW), Oregon, (308 MW), Texas (254 MW), Washington (127 MW), and Pennsylvania (121 MW). Pennsylvania increased its wind capacity by 15%.
Impressively another 8,916 megawatts of wind power is under construction in 31 states and Puerto Rico, making it probable that 2012 could see more than 10,000 megawatts of wind power built.
PPP Again Documents Romney's Third Party Peril But Most Pundits Oblivious
The Presidential race remains on track to be close, a contest where small things could make a difference. History shows an obvious difference-maker are third party candidates.
Yet, apparently Public Policy Polling (PPP) is the only pollster that realizes the 2012 ballot will include "third parties," because it alone seems to poll the Presidential race by offering names beyond Romney and Obama. And PPP finds that third party candidates importantly change numbers. In addition to Governor Johnson of the Libertarian Party, former Congressman Virgil Goode is moving numbers, at least in the critical state of Virginia, where his former Congressional district is located.
PPP's latest survey of Virginia has Obama leading Romney 51 to 43 in a head-to-head race. But former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode is the Presidential nominee of the far-right Constitution Party. When he is included in the polling question for Virginia, Obama falls to 50%; Romney drops further to 38%; and Goode gets 5%. www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-tops-romney-by-8-in-va-even-with-mcdonnell.html#more.
How important is Goode's possible impact? It could be crucial, even if Goode's numbers shrink closer to the election, as they likely will. Goode is drawing about 5 votes from Romney for every one vote he pulls from Obama in Virginia so, even if Goode gets 2% of the vote in Virginia, he could tip the state.
Governor Romney can win the Presidency without capturing Virginia, but it becomes really difficult for him. For example, an Obama win in Virginia means that he could lose either Pennsylvania or Ohio and still win the election. Obama winning both Virginia and Colorado, a state where Governor Johnson and Goode both could be factors, makes Romney's climb Everest-like.
The PPP poll shows that Congressman Goode hurts Romney in Virginia and by so doing could impact the entire 2012 outcome, as Ralph Nader did by swinging Florida and New Hampshire to George Bush in 2000. Goode will also be on the ballot in Colorado, probably Pennsylvania, and other states, though he will have much less impact beyond his home state of Virginia.
Given their historic impact of third party candidates, and the PPP data so far this year on Johnson and Goode, it is bewildering why most pollsters are not testing consistently the key third party candidates and why most media analysis is oblivious to the importance of third party candidates. PPP's results document that polls that fail to do so have another source of error.
Yet, apparently Public Policy Polling (PPP) is the only pollster that realizes the 2012 ballot will include "third parties," because it alone seems to poll the Presidential race by offering names beyond Romney and Obama. And PPP finds that third party candidates importantly change numbers. In addition to Governor Johnson of the Libertarian Party, former Congressman Virgil Goode is moving numbers, at least in the critical state of Virginia, where his former Congressional district is located.
PPP's latest survey of Virginia has Obama leading Romney 51 to 43 in a head-to-head race. But former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode is the Presidential nominee of the far-right Constitution Party. When he is included in the polling question for Virginia, Obama falls to 50%; Romney drops further to 38%; and Goode gets 5%. www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-tops-romney-by-8-in-va-even-with-mcdonnell.html#more.
How important is Goode's possible impact? It could be crucial, even if Goode's numbers shrink closer to the election, as they likely will. Goode is drawing about 5 votes from Romney for every one vote he pulls from Obama in Virginia so, even if Goode gets 2% of the vote in Virginia, he could tip the state.
Governor Romney can win the Presidency without capturing Virginia, but it becomes really difficult for him. For example, an Obama win in Virginia means that he could lose either Pennsylvania or Ohio and still win the election. Obama winning both Virginia and Colorado, a state where Governor Johnson and Goode both could be factors, makes Romney's climb Everest-like.
The PPP poll shows that Congressman Goode hurts Romney in Virginia and by so doing could impact the entire 2012 outcome, as Ralph Nader did by swinging Florida and New Hampshire to George Bush in 2000. Goode will also be on the ballot in Colorado, probably Pennsylvania, and other states, though he will have much less impact beyond his home state of Virginia.
Given their historic impact of third party candidates, and the PPP data so far this year on Johnson and Goode, it is bewildering why most pollsters are not testing consistently the key third party candidates and why most media analysis is oblivious to the importance of third party candidates. PPP's results document that polls that fail to do so have another source of error.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Prius Sales Surge But Volt and Leaf Sales Fall
The Prius is America's number 5 top seller, trailing just the Ford F-Series, Camry/Solara, Accord, and Chevy Silverado. Consumers seeking to cut their gasoline bill snapped up 25,168 Prius models in April .
pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+sales+increase+april+2012.htm. The month set an all-time record for sales of the Prius.
The sales news for the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf were not as good. Sales fell compared to the previous month for both, but the April Volt sales of more than 1,400 cars were considerably higher than the January and February numbers. www.plugincars.com/chevy-volt-sales-still-sizzling-nissan-leaf-slumps-april-2012-120922.html.
April was another good month for the emerging electric vehicle options.
pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+sales+increase+april+2012.htm. The month set an all-time record for sales of the Prius.
The sales news for the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf were not as good. Sales fell compared to the previous month for both, but the April Volt sales of more than 1,400 cars were considerably higher than the January and February numbers. www.plugincars.com/chevy-volt-sales-still-sizzling-nissan-leaf-slumps-april-2012-120922.html.
April was another good month for the emerging electric vehicle options.
Massive Switching To Gas Causes BusinessWeek To Ask, "Is Coal Doomed?" It's Not
The large switching from coal to natural gas in the USA caused The Atlantic and Business Week to write big stories about the future of coal, leading with the question, "Is coal doomed?" http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/is-coal-doomed/256455/#.T5xC0_3ibqg.email. Also see http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-26/coals-future-is-rocky-at-best. Coal is not doomed, because it remains the lowest cost source of energy in most of the world. Developing economic carbon capture and sequestration technology, however, is essential to coal's global, long-term future.
While Deutsche Bank predicts that coal will provide just 20% of US electricity supply by 2030, down from more than 50% in 2000, slumping coal demand has finally triggered a 45% price plummet in Powder River Basin coal so far in 2012 and a 24% drop in the price of Appalachian coal over the last year. The price war between coal and gas is intense. Coal's recent steep price declines will make it more competitive with natural gas in the USA during the next few years, if coal can be sustainably produced at today's much lower prices.
While intense price competition with natural gas is stressing coal in the USA, natural gas prices around the world are now 4 to 5 times what they are in the USA. Coal is the low-cost energy provider in most parts of the world.
Unsurprisingly, given coal's global price competitiveness, coal demand is actually growing globally, mainly as a result of burgeoning demand from China and India. But even in those markets, warning signs for coal's future can be seen on the horizon.
Importantly, both China and India are beginning development of natural gas resources, including potentially very large shale gas resources. China is building an incredible 27 nuclear reactors, and India is increasing nuclear investment too. In addition, both nations are among the world's biggest and fastest growing renewable energy markets.
Though rising global sales of coal mean that coal for the next 10 years is secure around the world, coal's future over the next 40 years is another matter. The fuel's long-term future hinges on the development of economical carbon capture and storage technology.
Research and development of such technology should be the top priority for the coal industry and a major priority for governments and advocates concerned about climate. Everyone has a big stake in making coal a zero carbon fuel.
While Deutsche Bank predicts that coal will provide just 20% of US electricity supply by 2030, down from more than 50% in 2000, slumping coal demand has finally triggered a 45% price plummet in Powder River Basin coal so far in 2012 and a 24% drop in the price of Appalachian coal over the last year. The price war between coal and gas is intense. Coal's recent steep price declines will make it more competitive with natural gas in the USA during the next few years, if coal can be sustainably produced at today's much lower prices.
While intense price competition with natural gas is stressing coal in the USA, natural gas prices around the world are now 4 to 5 times what they are in the USA. Coal is the low-cost energy provider in most parts of the world.
Unsurprisingly, given coal's global price competitiveness, coal demand is actually growing globally, mainly as a result of burgeoning demand from China and India. But even in those markets, warning signs for coal's future can be seen on the horizon.
Importantly, both China and India are beginning development of natural gas resources, including potentially very large shale gas resources. China is building an incredible 27 nuclear reactors, and India is increasing nuclear investment too. In addition, both nations are among the world's biggest and fastest growing renewable energy markets.
Though rising global sales of coal mean that coal for the next 10 years is secure around the world, coal's future over the next 40 years is another matter. The fuel's long-term future hinges on the development of economical carbon capture and storage technology.
Research and development of such technology should be the top priority for the coal industry and a major priority for governments and advocates concerned about climate. Everyone has a big stake in making coal a zero carbon fuel.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
SolarCity Files IPO: Will It Be The Solar Walmart?
The news that SolarCity (http://www.solarcity.com/) is moving forward with an IPO raises 2 questions: Is anyone making money in the hyper-competitive solar business? And could SolarCity be the solar Walmart, the company that achieves economies of scale in retail distributed solar?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/solarcity-takes-step-toward-public-offering/.
Companies are making money in solar, but mainly on the solar development or project side of the industry, where the intense competition in solar manufacturing is driving down prices for materials used and sold by companiers like SolarCity. NRG and Warren Buffet are two examples of investors who have plunged into large, utility-scale solar projects that deploy much cheaper solar systems to provide electricity through power purchase agreements with utilities.
SolarCity, however, is the market leader on rooftop, distributed solar that is at the homes and businesses of its customers. It is targeting solar in service territories where the full electric rate--including distribution and transmission--is among the highest in the nation and so the solar payback period is shorter. Solar pricing is at grid parity--a price equal to the price of grid electricity--in about 200 utility service territories
Founded in 2006, SolarCity has completed or underway 30,000 solar projects in 14 states and pioneered the solar leasing model that is expanding the solar market . It has not had federal loan guarantees, but impressively has secured private financing for its projects from Bank of America and U.S. Bancorp.
Its goal is to be the Walmart of retail, distributed solar. Perhaps it can be. Indeed, one of SolarCity's business customers is Walmart for whom SolarCity has installed rooftop solar systems at its stores.
SolarCity has some unique qualities, but it enters the IPO market at a time of bearishness for clean energy investment. All that means this is an IPO worth watching and even possibly worth participating in.
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